mainly triggeredby theaboveaverage rain-
falls at the start of the season, which again
began to fall in the orange production re-
gions in October and November, after a pe-
riod of a prolonged drought. Besides the
climate, the good development was asso-
ciated with the “intensification of the cul-
tural practices, ascertained by the rising
demand for inputs used innutritionalman-
agement and phytosanitary practices”.
ArnaldoCalil PereiraJardim, secretaryof
Agriculture and Supply in São Paulo, com-
memorated in late 2017 the increase regis-
teredby thecrop, besides the renewal of the
partnership with Fundecitrus in its 40 years,
aimed at fighting the greening disease, still
affecting 16.7% of the orange fields in the
Citrus Belt. He also recalled the novelty in
the development of the first transgenic or-
ange by the Agronomic Institute of Campi-
nas (IAC), with higher resistance against the
Exports of
orange juice
rose 23% in
the second
half of 2017
citrus canker and xylella fastidiosa.
The Center for Applied Studies on Ad-
vanced Economics (Cepea), of the Luiz de
Queiroz College of Agriculture (Esalq), a divi-
sion of the University of São Paulo (USP), in
turn, ascertained a decrease in prices fetched
by the bigger volume. In early 2017, the val-
uewas 118%bigger than in theprevious year,
while in November it was down 42.4% from
the same month in the previous year. On the
other hand, based on data from the Nation-
al Association of Citrus Juice Exporters (Citrus
BR), the Center for Applied Studies observed
thatthestocksofjuiceattheprocessingplants
went up 93% (to 207 thousand tons), in the
forecast for June 2018, “this fact, however,
shouldnotrepresentanexcessofsupply”.
These data, according to market analysts
Caroline Ribeiro and Laleska Rossi Moda, in-
dicate that the big 2017/18 crop “will be just
enoughtomitigatetheratherlowstocksinthe
2016/17 growing season, depending equal-
ly on the industrial performance and on the
confirmation of the milling of upwards of 300
million boxes”. They also mentioned the de-
pendence on the 2018/19 production period,
which,judgingfromtheinitialindications,pre-
sented losses, suggesting the season “could
again be characterized by controlled offer in
the StateofSãoPauloandTriânguloMineiro”.
55
l
MAKINGUP FOR THE SMALLER CROP IN FLORIDA
After a 17-percent reduction in the volumes of orange juice shipped abroad in the
2016/17 crop year by Brazil (950.9 thousand tons in July and June every year) and
even in the civil year, with the smaller production that occurred in the citrus belt in
Brazil, the new and bigger crop is showing reaction at exports. From July to Decem-
ber 2017, the exports of juice concentrate equivalent to 66 degrees brix (FCOJ Equiv-
alent) registered an increase of 23% in volume and 26% in revenue.
Partial shipments until November equally showed this situation, where there
was a strong interference from the “low production scenario in Florida” said Ce-
pea sources at an analysis in late 2017 and reiterated in early 2018, recalling impacts
from the greening disease and from Hurricane Irma. It also presented positive per-
spectives of the agents of the sector, “based on the recovery of juice stocks, though
partially, allowing Brazil to meet the needs of the United States, whilst refilling the
stocks of the European bottling companies”.
According to data from CitrusBR, in the second half of 2017, the 23-percent in-
crease inexports alsooccurred in the volumedestined for theEuropeanUnion (lead-
ing buyer of the Brazilian product, with 70%of the total), while for the United States,
by virtue of the problem that affected the local production, shipments soared 41%.
In this country, according to Ibiapaba Neto, executive director at CitrusBR, there is
a potential demand in excess of 70 thousand tons of FCOJ equivalent, and it is un-
known if it will be converted into real consumption, “but we’ve got to be prepared
tomeet the needs of this market, the biggest in the world”, he said in January 2018.
