way
T
he International TobaccoGrowers’ Association (ITGA) is concerned about the
decline in the consumption of cigarettes in the world. The volume of 6.7 tril-
lionpieces traded in 2011 has beendropping and could reachonly 6.1 trillion
in 2021, according to recently conducted surveys. The fact, according to the
institution, “is occurring significantly in developed countries, withmore than
10-percent annual reductions in importantmarkets, like theUnitedStates”.
This decline in consumption used to be offset by regular consumption in several coun-
triesinAsia,withhugepopulations,likeChina,Indonesia,India,thePhilippinesandVietnam,
sayentitysources.However,overthepastyears,thiscompensationbegantodecreaseandin
2015,Chinaitself,biggestglobalmarket,sufferedreductionsinconsumption.“Themainrea-
sons include, for one thing, the negative evolutionof the economies inmost of the develop-
ing countries and, on the other hand, the generalization of ever more restrictive legislation
againstcigaretteconsumption”,commentschiefexecutivedirectorAntonioAbrunhosa.
Restrictive legislation, he exemplifies, also “occurs in very important markets, like
Russia and other Eastern European countries and several Asian nations, including Chi-
Globalproductive
sectorfaces
asituationof
restraineddemand
andrestrictive
legislation,and
isincreasingly
focusingon
sustainability
na”. Abrunhosa also recalls that herewe are talking about legal consumption, because,
in the meantime, “the illicit trade in cigarettes is on the rise in almost all countries in
the world, as a result of radical measures, like plain packaging, and successive and
substantial tax increases over cigarettes”.
Meanwhile, according to the ITGA executive, the production of tobacco has not kept
pace with the declining demand, resulting into years of overproduction, with negative re-
flectionon farmgateprices”. In the2015/16growing season, productionwent down slight-
ly inmajor growing countries, like Brazil, Zimbabwe and theUnited States, due to adverse
weather conditions”, butwhat is acauseof concern is theprojectionof abigger crop.
With regard to regions where the sector is still supposed to grow further, Abrunhosa
identifies possible significant percentages in the Middle East and in Africa, besides small-
er increases incountries inother regions. On theother hand, bigger declines are supposed
to take place in the developed economies, like the United States, Canada, the European
Union, Japan and South Korea. Notwithstanding these difficulties, he points to the exis-
tenceof nearlyonebillionpeople consuming tobaccoproducts at global level.
Nonetheless, he insisted that there is “a clear downward trend in demand”, a fact that
convincedmembersof the ITGA todecide, at theannualmeeting in India, inSeptember, to
center their activity in search of solutions that ensure the sustainability of the associated
members. Inparallel, the executive director stresses that “the associationwill keepa close
watch on antismoking legislation, especially if it directly affects the production of tobacco
andon its leadingorigin, theFrameworkConventiononTobaccoControl”.
n
Stones in
Themajor factor
toconsider for
thefutureof the
sector istheevolution
of theconsumption
of tobaccoproducts,
particularlycigarettes
AntonioAbrunhosa,
chiefexecutive
directorattheITGA
the
Inor Ag. Assmann
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