If it depends on the area of sugarcane to
be harvested in Brazil in the 2016/17 grow-
ing season, the crop is likely to set a record.
As a matter of fact, production is in a condi-
tion to climb to the same podium, provid-
ed productivity keeps pace with the same
vigor. National projections released early
in the cycle, in April 2016, pointed to this
possibility, in spite of a slightly lower per-
formance (1%). Nevertheless, initial projec-
tions in the largest sugarcane producing re-
gion, Central-South, hint at difficulties that
might prevent the crop from reaching its ex-
pected highest productivity rates.
The initial expectation, expressed by the
National Food Supply Agency (Conab), men-
tioned an area increase of 4.8%, to 9.07 mil-
lion hectares, the biggest planted area ever.
This, in particular, is due to the sugarcane
fields not harvested in the previous grow-
ing season in the Central-South region. Fur-
thermore, productivity is supposed to re-
cede slightly (1.8%) in this leading sugarcane
producing area, seeing that productivity was
high in the previous crop year. There is, how-
ever, no indication that it could affect a supe-
rior final result in the Country, which, along
with the recovery in the Northeast, would
lead to a 3.8-percent increase, lending sup-
port to another record (691 million tons).
The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Associ-
ation (Unica), with other unions and associ-
ations of producers in the Central-South re-
gion, and the Sugarcane Technology Center
(CTC), in turn, estimated for this largest pro-
ducing area that sugarcane crushing would
reach from 605 to 630 million tons, similar
levels compared to the previous cycle (617.7
million tons). They also spotted dependence
on weather, agronomic and operational con-
ditions during the 12-month period. In July,
after three months, accumulated productiv-
ity was down 1% and the likelihood, at that
Record-setting area
Area devoted to sugarcane in the 2016/17 growing season is the
biggest ever, but production will depend on the behavior of several factors
Productivity of the crop is likely
to fall, but quality should improve
time, was that the region would remain clos-
er to the projected lower margin – therefore,
below the previous season.
Although performance per area was
higher in April and May, and the credit
goes to the sugarcane left in the field in the
previous year, June registered lower pro-
ductivity and the same held true for early
July. There was an Indian Summer in April,
excessive precipitation in May, followed by
frost conditions and sugarcane was har-
vested before the end of its cycle, so much
so that almost 500 thousand hectares had
been harvested by the end of July, which
impacts on results, says Antonio de Padua
Rodrigues, technical director of Unica.
Even so, the projection for a higher crop
in the region persisted, very close to initial
estimates, from 134 to 136 kilograms of TRS
(Total Recoverable Sugars) per ton of sug-
arcane, with the expectation to reach 134
to 135 kilograms. This number remained at
130.51 in the previous year, when a great
part of the harvest was delayed towards the
end of the season. On the other hand, the
2016/17 growing season should be more
concentrated between April and Novem-
ber, which makes its TRS go up, in the eval-
uation of the Unica director. Conab, for its
part, confirmed the higher indicator for the
crop in the entire Country.
Therefore, taking into consideration a
market favorable to sugar, there is expec-
tation for a bigger production volume for
the current crop year. The same should oc-
cur to anhydrous ethanol (mixed with gas-
oline), while hydrated ethanol, available at
gas stations, is on the decline, a fact that
started in the first months of the cycle. The
production mix is still favorable to biofuel,
in general, but with a shrinking difference
relative to sugar. Conab projects, at the des-
tination of the raw material, percentages of
43.3% for sugar and 56.7% for ethanol.
Inor Ag. Assmann
18
Fonte:
Unica, abril de 2016
O QUE VEM DO CAMPO
What comes from the farm
Projeções para a safra 2016/17 da cana-de-açúcar
Fonte:
Conab, abril de 2016
Região
ATR (kg/t)
Produção (mil t)
Centro-Sul
134 a 136
605.000 a 630.000
Regiões
Área (mil ha)
Produtividade (kg/ha) Produção (mil t)
Centro-Sul
8.089,7
78.825
637.667,2
Norte-Nordeste
984,0
54.176
53.311,2
Brasil
9.073,7
76.152
690.978,4
