crisis
Goodbye
A
t global level, from 2015 to
2016, the dairy sector experi-
enced a serious crisis, the lon-
gest since 2007, with expres-
sive increase in production in
2014, affecting prices. In 2017, however, it
is common belief that the cycle in this pro-
cess has come to a close, with a recovery of
the level or historical reference of the price,
over the past 10 years, of US$ 0.38 per kilo-
gram of milk in the month of June (in May
2016 it represented 58 percent of this val-
Sector has it that
the recent critical
globalmilk cycle
has come to a close
with a historical
price recovery reference,
in June 2017
ue).This evaluation was conducted in the
18th Annual IFCN Supporters Conference
for Comparing Milk Production Systems,
held that month, with the participation of
the Brazilian representative, Embrapa.
Annual production went up 2.3 percent
a year from2006 to2007, withanannual in-
crease of 17 million tons, while in 2014 this
increase amounted to 26 million tons, ac-
cording to estimates by IFCN officials. For
this reason, the rhythm was slowed down
in2016, toa rateof 1.1percent compared to
the previous year, the smallest since 1998,
while the number of producers dropped
for the first time, according todata released
by this source, disclosed by the Platform
Intelactus Team at Embrapa Dairy Cattle.
The total volume reached 847 million tons,
including all types of milk, and the number
of producers, 119.3million.
Considering only cow’s milk and 15
countries, plus the European Union (EU),
which under these conditions becomes
the leading producer, and relying on sev-
eral sources, like the US Department of
Agriculture (USDA), the production vol-
ume in 2016 amounted to 505.5 mil-
lion tons, up 0.5% from 2015, when the
2012/2015 rate remained at 2.1 percent.
In this survey, Brazil ranks as fifth biggest
producer, but, in an individual manner per
country, Brazil occupies the fourth posi-
tion, coming after the United States, India
and China and followed by Germany, Rus-
sia, France and New Zealand.
In 2017, according to a survey conduct-
ed by the National Food Supply Agency
(Conab) with the several sources in July, a
global increase in cow’smilk production is
estimated at 1.5 percent, to 512.9 million
tons. With the exception of China, Ukraine,
Australia and Japan, in all other countries
supply is supposed to soar and the expec-
tation is for rising exports of dairy com-
modities (cheese, butter, whole milk pow-
der and skimmed milk). Demand, in turn,
according to a report by the National Milk
Institute (Inale), in Uruguay, looks favor-
able in general, where the highlight is Chi-
na’s position as relevant buyer.
Inor Ag. Assmann
51
emdestaque mundial
acknowledged worldwide
Produtores de leite de vaca
selecionados (Emmil toneladas)
Fonte:
Conab – IBGE e Mapa/Embrapa (p/Brasil),
Inale (p/Uruguai), FAO (p/Paraguai) e USDA/FAS
(demais países).
Países/bloco
2016
União Europeia
151.000
Estados Unidos
96.343
Índia
68.000
China
36.020
Brasil
34.650
Rússia
30.470
Nova Zelândia
21.224
México
11.956
Argentina
10.191
Ucrânia
10.380
Austrália
9.350
Canadá
9.100
Japão
7.420
Belarússia
7.140
Uruguai
1.775
Paraguai
536
Total
505.555
