T he roar of the engine
Ethanol seems to be on a stable production andmarket trend in the 2016/17 season,
with expectations for well-defined rules for picking up steam in the future
Brazilian biofuel made from sugar-
cane that powers flex vehicles (hydrated
ethanol) and mixed with gasoline (anhy-
drous) are supposed to experience os-
cillations of their own in the 2016/17
crop year, compared to the previous
year. But total ethanol should remain
almost at the same level as last year –
down 0.4%, according to the National
Food Supply Agency (Conab) and simi-
lar projections by the Brazilian Sugarcane
Industry Association (Unica) on the Cen-
tral-South region, largest producer. Esti-
mates point to bigger volumes of anhy-
drous ethanol and a decrease in hydrated
ethanol, a fact that was ratified during the
first months of the season. With regard to
exports, both types of the product expe-
rienced reactions.
This picture should not have any
great impact on the market, according
to an evaluation conducted in July 2016
by Antonio de Pádua Rodrigues, techni-
cal director at Unica. As to exports, which
soared for both types of ethanol (mainly
destined for the United States and South
Korea), Conab officials detected soaring
demand and the depreciation of the Real
against the Dollar. On the other hand,
Pádua had it that the performance re-
flects an advantage taken of the window
of opportunity. “However, with the better
prices in the domestic scenario, the trend
is for these operations to slow down
throughout the year”, he commented.
The Unica official commented that in
this season there is a forecast for a reduc-
tion in consumption the market referred
to as cycle “Otto) (gasoline, hydrated eth-
anol and anhydrous ethanol), with de-
creasing sales of common gasoline and
hydrated ethanol, a behavior that affects
the latter the most. Therefore, according
to his analysis, anhydrous mixed with fos-
sil fuel (at a proportion expanded from
25% to 27% in 2015), has every condition
to grow even further, also favored by con-
tracts signed early in the season.
In 2015, Biofuel at the filling stations
showed a good performance, with good
numbers (18.6 billion liters), due to the
implementation of measures intended to
support its competitiveness. Along with
a price increase of gasoline, there was a
partial return from the Contribution for
Intervention in the Economic Domain
(Cide) and the correction of the factor
of the Social Integration Program (PIS)
and the Contribution for Financing of
Social Security (Cofins) incurred by this
fuel. Other advantages came from tariff
alterations on the State Value Added Tax
(ICMS) in sugarcane producing states.
Despite occasional sales declines in
2016, Pádua stresses that there is a mar-
ket for hydrated ethanol, provided more
sugarcane is available. He also refers to
idle equipment in the mills, because, al-
though having achieved good produc-
tion levels last year, the share of biofu-
el in the energy matrix remained at 23%,
compared to 31% in 2009. The Nation-
al Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and
Biofuels (ANP) is projecting possible defi-
cits in the Otto Cycle in the next decade if
Brazil resumes its growth, while there are
some requests for the construction and
expansion of mills after the shutdown of
several plants.
Bold measures
Brazil assumed a commitment at the COP 21, Paris Climate Change Conference, of
the United Nations Organization (UNO), consisting in the production of 50 billion liters
of ethanol (anhydrous and hydrated), by 2030, considering that in the past season Brazil
produced 30 billion liters. To achieve such target and start investments again, Unica offi-
cial Padua Rodrigues comments, there is need for defined regulation for a longer period
of time, on gasoline prices in the market (though there have been signs of a certain rela-
tion with the international market) and definitively grant ethanol its due value from an
environmental, social and sanitary point of view, with bigger taxation differences.
47
MOVIMENTOS DO
ETANOL BRASILEIRO
Movements of Brazilian Ethanol
Estimativas de produção
(emmilhões de litros)
Fonte:
Conab, abril de 2016
Fonte:
Conab, abril de 2016
Fonte:
Unica, julho de 2016
Fonte:
Unica, abril de 2016
Fonte:
Unica
Etanol
2016/17 % s/2015/16
Anidro
11.736
4,7
Hidratado
18.604
-3,4
Total
30.340
-0,4
Região Centro-Sul
Anidro
10.711
5,0
Hidratado
17.723
- 3,0
Total
28.435 - 0,1
Região Centro-Sul
Abr-Jun 2016 % s/2015
Anidro
3.427 21,03
Hidratado
5.416 - 2,44
Total
8.843
5,49
Anidro
10.800 a 11.000
Hidratado
16.700 a 17.700
Total
27.500 a 28.700
Exportações brasileiras de etanol
2015 % s/2014
Volume (mil l)
1.861.760
34
Valor (US$ mil)
880.475
- 2,0
Jan-jun 2016 s/2015
Volume (mil l)
1.082.337
101
Valor (US$ mil)
520.121
77