Projectionsforthenextyearspointtothe
uptrendinproductionanddemandforthe
cereal,whereBrazilcomesinasprotagonist
T
he evolution of the Brazilian
soybean crop has not yet spot-
ted an arrival point. It is in full
swing, based on rising demand
for the cereal and well estab-
lished expansion conditions. For the next
10 years, the Ministry of Agriculture, Live-
stock and Food Supply (Mapa) projects an
uninterrupted growth of the Country’s lead-
ing grain crop, with an expansion of 29.7%
in production, 23.4% in domestic consump-
tion, and 33.5% in exports. In the evaluation
of theministry, it will be the crop that is like-
ly to expand the most over the coming de-
cade (27.5%), without any extra environ-
mental impact and, according to specialists,
it will have an even positive impact.
This expansion, according to projections
by Mapa officials until the 2026/27 crop
year, will particularly occur in native pas-
turelands. Furthermore, it is anticipated for
regions where there is still land available,
while in other regions, crop replacements
are the natural course. It will be significant
in “areas of great productive potential, like
the Matopiba cerrado regions (in the States
of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia),
from the central region towards the North
and Northeast”. Amélio Dall”Agnol, from
Embrapa Soybean, in turn, observes that,
“new agricultural frontiers in the Center-
West, Far South and Matopiba should ac-
count for the higher production volumes
and with positive environmental impacts,
through the recovery of the productive ca-
pacity of degraded soils in pasturelands”.
As Amélio has already commented in
previous opportunities in the Brazilian Soy-
bean Yearbook, and reiterated in an opin-
ion published in July 2017, “without knock-
ing down any other tree in the vast Amazon
jungle, the area devoted to soybean in Bra-
zil could further increase”. Upon registering
that Brazil masters technologies to produce
soybean with efficiency in tropical regions,
where the rest of the planet is still ineffi-
cient, and boasting more conditions to ex-
pand than its direct competitors (theUnited
Guaranteed
future
Crop inBrazil should growparticularly over pastureland
States and Argentina), he stresses that Bra-
zil could be the relevant beneficiary of the
growth projected for global demand, with
the chances to become the biggest supplier
of this additional consumption item.
The researcher comments that risingde-
mand for soybean is linked to soaring con-
sumption of meat, rising purchasing power
of thepeople, inparticular in thedeveloping
countries, where populations are large and
grow fast. He cites that global production
of animal protein has been growing con-
tinuously and should continue as such, so
much that there areperspectives fromglob-
al organisms that suggest that production
should double by 2050. To this end, he con-
cludes, Brazil is prepared.
With regard to soybean meal, Mapa
sources refer to “moderate dynamism in
production over the next years”, with re-
spective increases of 19.8%and24%, some-
what higher, however, compared to the past
decade. As for its destination, contrary to
the kernels, will be the domestic market,
where a production increase of 32.2% is an-
ticipated for soybeanmeal for themanufac-
tureof livestock feed, and28.6% inoil, espe-
cially focusedon theproductionof biodiesel
for the national car fleet.
n
Sílvio Ávila
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