Globalproductionandstocksofthegolden
kernelmadealeapforwardinthe2016/17growing
season,butperspectivesforthenewseasonare
pointingtoacropwithinnormallimits
S
oybean supplies around the
world are almost in their entirety,
around 80%, concentrated in the
three largest producing countries
(the United States, Brazil and Ar-
gentina), and theAsiangiant (China), respon-
sible for 75% of the demand and 64% of all
imports, registered a big increase in produc-
tion in the 2016/17 growing season. Accord-
ing to an estimate by the US Department
of Agriculture (USDA), the global produc-
tion volume of the kernel went up 12.03%
compared to the previous year’s crop, with
the biggest increase taking place in the two
leading soybean-producing countries, with
23.44% ending up in the ending stocks, af-
fecting prices. For the new period, the fore-
castoftheNorth-Americanorgan,releasedin
September 2017, suggesteda small decrease
inthesizeofthecrop,withnorelevantchang-
es in the surplus volume.
The largest soybeanproducer in theworld
has been devoting more land to the crop,
with subsequent bigger supplies. Besides
managing to harvest a 9.68 percent bigger
crop in the 2016/17 growing season, when
weather conditions were a factor, until Sep-
tember 2017, the North-American farmers
had been registering surprising projections
for the 2017/18 crop year, with expectations
for further crop size increases, to upwards
of 120 million tons. For Brazil, USDA’s pro-
jections signaled a crop shrinking from 114
million tons to 107 million tons, and for Ar-
gentina, a slight decrease from57.8 to57mil-
lion tons. These projections signal a slight-
ly smaller global production (around0.85%).
In the meantime, judging from the USDA
projections for the 2017/18 crop year, glob-
al demand for soybean will continue soar-
ing, around 4.41%, which would prevent
the stocks from further swelling (they would
Golden
globe
Brazil ranks as second largest producer and leader in exports
rise from 95.96 to 97.53 million tons, up only
1.64%). The largest global consumer, China, is
still showing great appetite for the crop, with
possible 3.3 percent increases in imports, de-
spite that country’s 8.5 percent bigger crop,
which is still low (3.7 percent of the total). This
signals good export perspectives for the ma-
jor suppliers, where Brazil has held the world
number one ranking over the past seasons
and, judging by the numbers released by
USDA,therewillbenochangestothisposition
throughoutthenewcropyear,withtheUnited
Statesclosebehind,asnumbertwo.
With regard to soy derivatives, the United
States the largest producer of soybean meal,
followed by Argentina, which outstrips Brazil
on that score, and is the number 1 exporter of
this product, followedby Brazil. In terms of oil
industrialization, China ranks first worldwide,
followedbytheUnitedStates,butArgentinais
the leading exporter, followed by Brazil in the
sequence. Regarding these two products, US-
DA’s forecast is that, just like what holds true
for the kernel, global production will again
soar in the 2017/18 growing season, amount-
ing toa total of 236.55million tons (up4.51%),
and56.13milliontonsofoil(up4.01%).
n
Sílvio Ávila
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