Sílvio Ávila
14
The importance of corn for Brazilian agri-
business is getting more and more evident.
The Country now ranks as third biggest pro-
ducer and second biggest exporter, bring-
ing revenue as an integral part of the balance
of trade. Not to mention that the kernel is a
fundamental component of the feed for the
national chicken and hog supply chains. At
present, total corn consumption, domestic de-
mand plus exports, reaches about 90 million
tons. In the 2015/16 growing season, total pro-
duction is estimated at 76.223million tons, in-
cluding summer and second crop.
The projection lags behind the
initial estimates by the National Food
SupplyAgency(Conab),mainlydueto
unfavorable weather conditions, like
dry spells andwarmtemperatures. Ac-
cordingtoplanningtechnicianEledon
Pereira de Oliveira, of the survey and
assessment department at Conab, it is
a 10 percent reduction from the previ-
ous year, when the total crop amount-
ed to 84.672million tons. In 2016, the
planted area should remain at 15.746
million hectares, and productivity of
4,841 kilograms per hectare.
For the summer crop, the planted
area is estimated at 5.467million hect-
ares, with the production of 26.227
million tons, with yields of 4,797 kilo-
grams per hectare. With corn on a rising trend,
10.2million hectares are supposed to be devot-
ed to the second crop, up 7.6% from the previ-
ous year. Nonetheless, the performance of the
crop in the entire national territory is likely to
be affected by bad weather conditions, with a
strong impact upon the total production vol-
ume in the period. The trend for smaller pro-
ductivity in the second crop was detected by
Conab sources, in their June survey.
In light of the low performance of the sec-
ond crop and the strong rhythm of exports,
given the high volume of anticipated negotia-
tions, the expectation is for Brazil to start 2017
with a tight stock and high prices. “With the
harvest of the second crop now underway,
there is a natural trend for prices to go down,
with the export parity price as minimum lim-
it”, explains analyst Thomé Luiz Freire Guth.
“However, as the volume of shipments abroad
soars, supply gets tighter, again pushing up
the prices of the cereal, which could even be
compensated by a bigger first corn crop in the
2016/17 growing season, which, in that case,
should have its growth limited by the competi-
tion for areas devoted to soybean.”
According to the manager of the
soybean and livestock products de-
partment at Conab, by virtue of this
scenario, the recommendation is for
the animal production sector to stay
focused on the right moment to ac-
quire the product, so as to avoid the
risk incurred in 2016. At the other ex-
tremity of the supply chain, the ker-
nel should continue profitable for
the farmers throughout the next
year, particularly for those who cul-
tivate corn in the summer crop. In
June 2016, taking into consideration
Conabproductionparameters, a sack
fetching R$ 35 covered not only the
production cost, but equally all vari-
able and operational costs.
Produção de milho no Brasil – Segunda safra
VOLUME PRINCIPAL
Corn Production in Brazil
Fonte:
Conab, junho de 2016.
Área (Mil ha)
Produtividade (Kg/ha)
Produção (Mil t)
Região
2014/15 2015/16
% 2014/15 2015/16
% 2014/15 2015/16
%
Norte
273,5
203,0 -25,8
4.700 4.112 -12,5
1.285,6
834,7 -35,1
Nordeste
618,9
565,9 -8,6
2.893 2.667 -7,8
1.790,2 1.509,3 -15,7
Centro-Oeste
6.118,6 6.506,8 6,3
6.060 4.955 -18,2
37.076,1 32.241,9 -13,0
Sudeste
625,3
797,6 -27,6
5.212 3.113 -40,3
3.259,1 2.483,1 -23,8
Sul
1.914,3 2.205,9 -15,2
5.840 5.860 0,3
11.179,5 12.926,6 15,6
Brasil
9.550,6 10.279,2 7,6
5.716 4.864 -14,9
54.590,5 49.995,5 -8,4
Millions of reasons
With its importance innational agriculture increasingly acknowledged, some 15.746
million hectares are supposed to be devoted to the cereal in the 2015/16 growing season
Productivity should
decrease due to
climate interferences