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The world hopes to harvest one bil-
lion tons of corn again, the top cereal on
the planet. Global production is projected
at 1.011 billion tons in the 2016/17grow-
ing season, according to a survey by the
US Department of Agriculture (USDA), re-
leased in June 2016. Should this result con-
firm, it will be up 4.7% from the 2015/16
growing season, estimated at 966.4 mil-
lion tons. According to USDA officials, the
increase is supposed to come from a big-
ger planted area and higher average pro-
ductivity rates. The volume of one billion
tons had been registered in the 2014/15
crop year, when the volume was up 13%
from the previous one.
Besides the production volume, global
consumption is also likely to amount to
1.013 billion tons in the 2016/17 period.
Should this demand confirm, it will be a
record, with an additional 3.3%, or 32.1
million tons, compared to the 2015/16
crop year, with consumption estimated at
980.2 million tons. As a result, the global
stocks could recede to 205.1 million tons,
down 0.6% from the volume of 206.4 mil-
lion tons forecast for the 2015/16 period.
On the other hand, global exports have
been projected at 132.9 million tons for
the 2016/17 crop year, meaning increase
of 9.5% from the amount expected for the
previous cycle.
USDA’s global estimates for the 2016/17
growing season stem from the expected
supplies from China, Brazil and the Europe-
an Union (EU 28). The crop in the United
States is likely to suffer a small reduction in
productivity, compensated by a bigger plant-
ed area. For the other two countries and the
European Union, the organ anticipates a
possible decrease in planted area, but high-
er yields. All these data are preliminary, ac-
cording to analysts of the corn area.
Towards one billion
Global corn crop is projected at 966.4million tons, with the
expectation to exceed 1 billion tons in the 2016/17 growing season
RANKING
The United States will con-
tinue as unbeatable leader, with a production
projected at 366.5million tons, up 6.1% from
the 2015/16 growing season. China should
continue producing the second biggest vol-
ume, estimated at 218 million tons, up 2.9%.
Brazil, as usual, will rank as third largest pro-
ducer. Brazil’s 2015/16 growing season is es-
timated to reach 77.5 million tons, and the
following season, 82 million tons.
The United States and China consume
more than half of the corn produced in the
world. In the 2016/17 crop year, the United
States could demand 310.4million tons, rep-
resenting a 3 percent increase. Consump-
tion in China should evolve to 227 million
tons, up 4.4% from the 2015/16 crop year.
The consumption of each of these countries
will reach a record amount. Historical con-
sumption rates are equally anticipated for
the EU (+0.4%) and for Brazil (+1.7%).
China is home to almost 50% of the glob-
al stock. According to USDA sources, the
Asian country’s stocks will soar to 101.5 mil-
lion tons in the 2016/17 period, represent-
ing a reduction of 8 million tons, because
supply was lagging behind domestic de-
mand. For the United States, the stocks were
reduced by 3.7% from the previous survey,
estimated at 51 million tons. Even so, the
amount will be up 17.6% from the 2015/16
stocks, due to the expectation of a bigger
planted area for the new period. The Brazil-
ian stock was expanded to 6.5 million tons
in the 2016/17 growing season, up 10.1%
from the present 5.9 million tons.
Exportações mundiais de milho (milhões de toneladas)
NEGÓCIOS
Businesses
Fonte:
USDA, elaboração Deagro/Fiesp, junho de 2016.
Países
Safras
Variação
2015/16 2016/17
Absoluta
%
EUA
46,4
49,5
3,2 6,8%
Brasil
22,5
23,0
0,5 2,2%
Argentina
18,0
23,0
5,0 27,8%
Ucrânia
16,0
17,0
1,0 6,3%
Demais países
17,8
20,6
2,8 16,8%
Mundo
120,6
133,1
12,5 10,4%
Estoques mundiais (milhões de toneladas)
RESERVAS
Stocks
Fonte:
USDA, elaboração Deagro/Fiesp, junho de 2016.
Países
Safras
Variação
2015/16 2016/17
Absoluta
%
China
109,5
101,5
-8,0 -7,3%
EUA
45,8
54,7
8,9 19,4%
Brasil
5,9
5,5
-0,4 6,7%
Argentina
18,0
23,0
5,0 27,8%
U.E.28
7,0
6,0
-1,0 -14,7%
Demais países
39,6
39,4
-0,3 -0,7%
Mundo
207,9
207,0
-0,8 -0,4%
