A
s far as the scenario of the crop
andmarkets in early 2017 are at
stake, the rice supply chain will
have a quite adjusted year in
terms of supply and demand,
and equally with regard to prices through-
out the year. The 2016/17 growing season,
to be harvested from late January through
February and March in South Brazil, should
amount to a volume similar to the domestic
need of the cereal, of 11.5million tons of un-
hulled rice. At the same time, the domestic
scenariopointstolowpricesinthefirsthalfof
the year, due to abundant supply, which will
favor exports and, at the same time, boost
national competitiveness, but should ad-
verselyaffect farmers’ profits.
Grain market analyst Sérgio Roberto
Gomes dos Santos Júnior, from the Na-
tional Food Supply Agency (Conab), em-
phasizes the recovery of almost one mil-
Braziliancroptendstobeexactlythesize
projectedforconsumption,thedifferencewill
lieinthetradeofbalanceandprivatestocks
Ripe
bunches
RICE
and imported about 1.2 million tons. The
trend is for Brazil to celebrate surpluses in
2017”, he anticipates.
According to Tiago Sarmento Barata,
commercial director at theRioGrandedoSul
Rice Institute (Irga), 2017 tends to be a year
of rather lower prices. “The market adjusts
itself. As domestic prices drop, shipments
abroad go up, they absorb the supplies and
prices soar again”, he comments. “If they rise
considerably, imports begin to soar and the
market again adjusts its prices to a point of
equilibrium”. Even so, he insists that produc-
tion costs soared and the margin of the rice
farmers should remain low during the sea-
son. “Production costs need to be carefully
calculated, alongwith a good selling strategy
if profits are tobeobtained”, hewarns.
In Barata’s view, the crop in Rio Grande
do Sul will be a normal one, with about 8.2
million tons, representing 70% of the total
production in the Country. “In other regions
there are failures, and our supply and de-
mandpicturewill continue rather tight, with
no public stocks andwith private stocks just
enough tomeet demand”, he recalls.
Chief economist Antônio da Luz, from
the Rio Grande do Sul Federation of Agri-
culture (Farsul), emphasizes that in 2017
there is no excuse for the federal govern-
ment not to ensure rice sales under favor-
able conditions for the farmers. “We are
witnessing heavy indebtedness and scarce
access to rural credit lines. Due to this, it is
important for the federal government to
grant resources for production costs, whilst
selling surpluses and generating mecha-
nisms capable of reducing the pressure
upon farmgates prices”, he stresses.
PRATOFEITO
Readytoeat
QuadrodeofertaedemandadearroznoBrasil,emmiltoneladas
Safra
Estoqueinicial
Produção Importação Suprimento
Consumo
Exportação Estoquefinal
2012/13
2.125,3
11.819,7
965,5
14.910,5
12.617,7
1.210,7
1.082,1
2013/14
1.082,1
12.121,6
807,2
14.010,9
11.954,3
1.188,4
868,2
2014/15
868,2
12.448,6
503,3
13.820,1
11.495,1
1.362,1
962,9
2015/16
962,9
10.602,9
1.300,0
12.865,8
11.450,0
1.100,0
315,8
2016/17
315,8
11.506,6
1.000,0
12.822,4
11.500,0
1.100,0
222,4
Fonte:Conab,dezembrode2016.
Expectation is for lower prices than in 2016
lion tons in the 2016/17 growing season,
compared to the 2015/16 season. “In all,
10.6 million tons were harvested, because
the phenomenon El Niño took a heavy
toll on the crop. The bigger supply in the
new season will dictate average prices in
the range of R$ 43 to R$ 44, contrary to the
second half of 2016 when prices remained
stable at R$ 48, and in some instances
prices peaked at R$ 50”, he explains.
He also maintains that because of the
failure of the crop Brazil needed to im-
port more rice from Mercosur countries,
with only small quantities available for
exports. Therefore, the civil year comes
to a close with a deficit of approximate-
ly 200 thousand tons in the balance of
trade. “We exported almost a million tons
Sílvio Ávila
24
