T
he 2017/18 growing season in
Brazil should maintain the trend
as in the current season, of a
small area and production in-
crease in South Brazil, and a
small reduction in the dry land rice crop.
However, there are lots of factors that could
interfere in the decision of the farmers un-
til planting time starts, from the behavior of
the climate (which tends tocontinueneutral)
withtheaccumulationofirrigationwaterand
the periods destined for soil preparation, ex-
change rate fluctuations, the performance of
national and international prices, as well as
Uncertaintiesaboundregardingthe
expectationforthecomingcrop, inwhich,
climateandpoliticalscenarios,alongwith
sectoralperformanceplayadecisiverole
president of the Federation of Rice Grow-
ers Associations in Rio Grande do Sul (Fed-
erarroz) it is still too early for a projection re-
garding the coming crop. “We have just
started harvesting the 2016/17 crop, and are
involved with its problems and commercial-
ization. Nonetheless, in the present scenar-
io, the expectation is for the coming crops to
remain stable, almost on a par with the con-
sumption volumes, with exports on the rise,
low stocks and average remuneration a little
above theproductioncost”, he imagines.
In his view, in light of the oscillations of
thepoliticalandeconomicscenariosathome
and abroad, along with the current difficul-
ties of most producers, if this expectation is
consolidated it could be viewed as a positive
result.“Amidsomanyuncertainties,itishope
and courage that keep the Brazilian rice crop
going”, he summarizes.
Near
future
production costs, including bank loans, and
thepolitical andeconomic scenarios.
The volume of imports fromMercosur will
also interfere. Perspectives of more remuner-
ating prices and export potentials, where the
latteraregreatlyassociatedwiththeexchange
rate and with internal prices and costs, all im-
portant factors in this real puzzle. Should the
scenario of the pre-harvest period in 2016/17
hold true, the expectation is for an increase
of 1% or 2% in South Brazil, with a produc-
tion ranging from12 to12.5million tons in the
Country,whichistakenasanormalcrop.
According to Henrique Osório Dornelles,
Analysts believe in a slightly bigger crop in the South in the 2017/18 crop year
Inor Ag. Assmann
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