I
n spite of losses brought about by the
global weather phenomenon El Niño in
all continents from 2015 to mid- 2016,
global rice production soared in the
2015/16 growing season. A report by the
Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO) indicates that there
are no risks of shortages of rice in theworld,
and present stocks amount to one third of
the annual need of the global population.
Throughout 2016, global rice crops went
up1.2%,jumpingfrom740to749millionmet-
ric tons (equivalent to 497.8 million tons of
processed rice). This calculation by FAO offi-
cials takes into consideration al the types of
rice (short and long-grain, fine long-grain rice,
aromatic and colored, among others). Only in
April 2017, therewill beadisclosureof the first
international estimate of the global rice pro-
duction,conductedbyFAOofficialsandbythe
US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global
referencesforthesestatisticalfigures.
Extra-officially, analysts project new crop
increases, about 1% in the volume of the ce-
GLOBALSUPPLySHOULDBEFULFILLED
WITHGLOBALPRODUCTIONANDSTOCkS,
WHICHREPRESENTONETHIRDOFTOTAL
CONSUMPTIONINTHEWORLD
Pakistan, a country that managed to keep its
sales stable. The good news is that in 2017
global trade is likely to recover by 3.6%, to
little more than 43 million tons of rice in the
husk. The volume is smaller than the record
of 45.6million tons reached in2014.
Because of consumption, global stocks fell
2% in 2016, to 171.2 million tons, taking into
considerationthevarioustypesandpatternsof
theproduct. The fallwas clearer in the twobig
global exporters, India and Thailand, where
the trend is for these countries to continue re-
sortingtotheirstocksduringtheseason.
Thailand is recovering from a frustrating
ricestockingprocessaimedatrecoveringpric-
es, and the result was the biggest stock in the
historyofthiscountry,with25%ofthericede-
terioratingandbecomingunfitforhumancon-
sumption,andnegotiatedatlowpricesforthe
extraction of ethanol and the manufacture of
livestock feed. India endured productive loss-
es in some regions and is now in an internal
supply process, whereby the population have
accesstothecerealatsubsidizedprices.
That is why, in 2017, according to FAO
sources, global stocks are supposed to re-
main stable, but at a comfortable level, to an
extension that will cause no impact on inter-
national prices, as these stockswill remainat
one thirdof theannual needsof theplanet.
With
surpluses
real, with the resumption of production is
Southeast Asia, in countries like China, Indo-
nesia and Vietnam. There are also projections
for evenbigger recoveries in theUnitedStates
and in Mercosur countries, which registered
a 7-percent increase in the 2017 growing sea-
son.Globalconsumptioncontinuesonitsveg-
etativegrowth,somewhatabove1%.
Global trade, in turn, suffered the conse-
quences of the international crisis, and de-
mand fell in the countries that expanded
their planted areas. In 2016, International
businesses dropped7%, to 41.6million tons
, according to analyst Patrício Méndez del
Villar, from the Centre for International Co-
operation inAgricultural Research for Devel-
opment (Cirad), based in France. It is in fact
the smallest volume negotiated over the
past five years, combining the decreasing
demand in Asia and the negligible increase
of the purchases by African countries.
As far as offer goes, all exporters were af-
fected, except Thailand, secondbiggest glob-
al exporter andwithhuge stocks for sale, and
Inor Ag. Assmann
28
Fonte:
FAO,marçode2017.–
Elaboração:
PatrícioMéndezdelVillar(InterArroz/Cirad).
Quadrode oferta edemandamundial de arroz – (* Beneficiado, emmilhões de toneladas)
MUNDO DE ARROZ
RICE WORLD
País/Região
Produção*
Exportações
Estoques
2015
2016
2015
2016
2016
Mundo
491,9
497,8
44,7
41,6
171,2
China
143,8
141,8
0,3
0,5
98,0
Índia
103,4
105,6
11,1
9,7
18,0
Indonésia
45,8
45,1
—
—
6,6
Vietnã
29,4
28,9
6,6
4,9
2,9
Tailândia
19,0
20,1
9,8
9,9
10,7
Brasil
8,5
7,5
0,9
0,6
0,7
Paquistão
6,8
6,6
4,1
4,3
0,9
Estados Unidos
6,1
7,3
3,5
3,3
1,5
Consumption continues on the rise and stocks should remain stable
