Estimatedat151.6millionsacksinthe2016/17
growingseason,globalproductiondoesnotkeep
pacewithdemand,projectedat155.1millionsacks
C
offee plantations scattered
across the globe have yielded
stable crops in the past years
but, in the meantime, de-
mand has soared. This is what
is shown by the recent reports of the Inter-
national Coffee Organization (ICO), based
in London. Global production is estimat-
ed at 151.6 million sacks of Arabic and co-
nilon, or Robusta, for the 2016/17 grow-
ing season, in accordance with the coffee
market reports published by the Interna-
tional Coffee Organization (ICO), from the
month of December 2016 to January and
February 2017. This volume represents a
minimum increase of 0.1% compared to
the 151.4 million sacks produced in the
2015/16 crop year.
Estimate of total coffee production con-
sidered that Arabica crop would reach 93.5
million sacks, representing an increase of
4.4%, or 3.9millionsacks.On that occasion,
according to ICO sources, the estimate was
for bigger Arabica crops in Brazil, Colom-
bia and Honduras. For Brazil, leading cof-
fee producer and exporter in the world, the
entity forecast a crop of 55 million sacks of
Arabica and conilon in the 2016/17 growing
season, benefiting from the bigger Arabica
crop. However, the result ascertained by
the National Food Supply Agency (Conab)
reached 51.37million sacks, and the bigger
Arabica crop ended up making up for part
of the smaller conilon crop.
In global terms, the bigger Arabica
crop should also make up for part of the
smaller forecast conilon crop. According
to officials from the International Cof-
fee Organization (ICO), the conilon crop
would reach 58.2 million sacks, down
6%, or 3.7 million sacks from the volume
harvested in the 2015/16 crop year, which
was 11.3% smaller than the 28.7 million
sacks in the previous year. The blame for
the reduction goes to the drought condi-
tions in the 2016 civil year.
SERVED
Demand for coffee is still
outpacing the volume produced in the
world, according to recent data released
by the ICO. It is estimated that 155.1 mil-
lion sacks were consumed in 2016, ac-
cording to a report by the entity, in Feb-
ruary 2017. This number represents an
amount of 3.476 million sacks more than
the estimated production of 151.6 mil-
lion sacks. In the previous years, the dif-
ferences remained at 4.274 million sacks
in 2015 and 3.098 million sacks in 2014.
However, the 2013 crop amounted to
3.098 million sacks in excess of the total
consumption of 146.977 million sacks.
ICO officials have it that part of the
difference between offer and demand
could be attributed to the moving stocks,
not included in the official records.
Therefore, consumption in 2016 could
go down as these stocks are being ab-
sorbed by the market. The officials also
suggest that, to have a more exact idea
of the volume of coffee consumed in the
world, there is need to check the market
trends in the long run, rather than the al-
terations that occur year after year.
On the subject of foreign coffee sales
in 2015/16, from October 2015 to Sep-
tember 2016, preliminary data indicate
that the value of all exporting countries
reached US$ 20.1 billion, for a volume
of 104.8 million sacks of Arabica and Ro-
busta coffee. This amount of revenue is
up 5.95% from the previous period, de-
spite the 1.4% drop in volumes shipped
abroad, reflecting the higher prices dur-
ing 2016. During this season, shipments
of Robusta and Arabica went up 7.4%
and 9.7%, respectively.
n
Plentyof
beans
Bigger Arabica crop should make up for part of the smaller conilon crop
Sílvio Ávila
30
CAFEICULTURA
MUNDIAL
global coffee farming
Principaispaísesprodutoresdecafédomundo
Países
Produção
(milhõesdesacasde60kg)
2015 2016 %
Brasil
50,376 55,000 9,2
Vietnã
28,737 25,500 -11,3
Colômbia
14,009 14,500 3,5
Indonésia
12,317 10,000 -18,8
Etiópia
6,714 6,600 -1,7
Honduras
5,766 5,934 2,9
Uganda
3,650 3,800 4,1
México
2,800 3,100 10,7
Guatemala
3,420 3,500 2,3
Peru
3,301 3,800 15,1
Costa do Marfim 1,893 2,000 5,7
Quênia
789
783 -0,7
Equador
644
600 -6,9
Sub-total
134,416 135,217 0,6
Outros países 17,022 16,407 -3,6
Total
151,438 151,624 0,1
Fonte:
OIC, janeiro de 2017.
