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There are fewer oranges for consump-
tion and less juice to drink in the world,
with crop frustrations in countries that are
major producers, like Brazil, biggest global
supplier (31% of the fruit, 55% of produc-
tion and 73% of juice exports). However,
although demand for the most consumed
fruit juice has been dropping over the past
years, it is still exceeding the present pro-
duction levels. As a result, the stocks of the
segment have been falling significantly and
smaller supplies are pushing up prices in
the international marketplace.
Global orange production in the
2015/16 growing season, according to a re-
port released by the US Department of Agri-
culture (USDA), on 20th July 2016, is likely
to recede 6.2% from the previous crop year.
Decrease occurred in Brazil, because of cli-
mate-induced factors; in the United States,
as a consequence of outbreaks of the green-
ing disease; and in Mexico it outstripped
the growth rate registered in China, the
European Union and Egypt. With smaller
amounts of the fruit available for consump-
tion and processing, these numbers equally
drop in the season.
Direct demand for the fruit in the do-
mestic market continues on its normal lev-
els (just a little lower), along with produc-
tive growth of the major consumers, China
and the European Union. The total des-
tined for the industry, according to projec-
tions by the North American organ, is esti-
mated to go down by 14.6%, whilst juice
supply and consumption are reckoned to
drop 9.6% and 8.9%, respectively. Since
the 2010/11 crop year, juice production suf-
fered bigger declines than its consumption
(36% to 10%) and the stocks have fallen to
their smallest levels since the 2009/10 crop
year (485 thousand tons).
The production of orange juice at glob-
al level is back to the levels of the early
1990s, from 1.6 and 1. 8 million tons, when
it reached 2.7 million tons in the 2003/04
growing season. As to world consumption,
according to sources from Agriplanning
Agribusiness Consultancy, based in São
Paulo, it was equivalent to 2.6 million tons
in 2003 and dropped by almost 30% (to 1.9
million tons) a decade later, with high lev-
els of reduction in major consuming coun-
tries (Germany, 34%; the United States,
33%), but in countries like China there was
growth during the period (184%).
For the next years, projection by Paral-
laxis Consultancy, in São Paulo, is that, in
the short run, the low production levels are
likely to persist in all major producing coun-
tries. In Brazil, “due to the high production
and fruit management costs, and low prof-
itability compared to other crops, which
caused planted area reductions in the past
years”. And in the United States, especially
in Florida, ‘the consequences of the green-
ing disease are likely to keep the producers
away from the market over the next years”.
Global orange and juice
productions continue
on the decline just like
in Brazil and adversely
affect the total
consumptionnumbers of
all citrus products
Not so liquid
world
Other citrus
Other citrus products, surveyed by USDA officials at global level, have diversified behaviors. The tangerine could have record global
production in the 2015/16 crop year, up 400 thousand tons from the previous year. The increase anticipated for China, biggest
producer, should make up for the estimated reduction in the second largest producing area, the European Union, Fresh consumption is
likely to continue rising, whilst exports will drop slightly, with smaller shipments from China and Turkey.
Estimates relative to global lemon supply, in turn, point to a reduction of 4% in the season in question. This should occur particularly in
the European Union, third biggest producer, “due to unfavorable weather conditions during the flowering and fruit growing period, with
a bigger influence on the final result than the increase in production in Argentina and the United States”. For the foreign trade of the
product, the forecast is for a 4% increase, with more operations promoted by the major producers, Mexico and Argentina.
LIMÃO
LEMON
Produção mundial de limão
(Safra 2015/16 – Mil t)
1. México
2.270
2. Argentina
1.500
3. União Europeia
1.260
4. Estados Unidos
847
5. Turquia
670
6. África do Sul
345
Total mundial
7.001
Fonte:
USDA, julho de 2016.
