Milk production in Brazil, which had been
rising at an average rate of more than 3 per-
cent per year, from 2011 to 2014, may have
dropped about 1 percent in 2015, according
to figures released by the National Food Sup-
ply Agency (Conab). Or even up to 2.8%, if it
is equivalent to the drop in the acquisition of
inspected milk during that year, according to
a quarterly survey conducted by the Brazilian
Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). It
is the first time that the amount of milk pro-
duced suffered a drop since the surveys start-
ed, in 1997, according to sources fromEmbra-
pa Dairy Cattle.
“Low prices, production costs on the
rise and shrinking domestic demand, result-
ing from the economic crisis, pushed pro-
duction down in all regions throughout the
Country”, says Maria Helena Fagundes, from
Conab, based on data released by the IBGE.
The leading milk producing regions (South-
east and South) experienced the smallest de-
clines. Samuel Oliveira, Embrapa researcher,
also mentions the crisis/consumption rela-
tion and the expressive increase in costs, fac-
tors that account for the smaller production of
milk in 2015. Until that year, the numbers had
been constantly rising, from 29 million liters a
day, in 1997, to 68million liters a day, in 2014.
For 2016, a projection by Conab, released
in April, was still pointing to a possible in-
crease (1%). However, analyst Maria Helena
had it that the level of production would de-
pend on the domestic scenario, where sever-
al factors could alter the estimates. She also
understood that the reduction in production
should, somehow, offer some support to pric-
es and avoid further reductions in produc-
tion. Nevertheless, in her opinion, the expect-
ed downtrend in the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), with the loss of jobs and income, high
inflation and smaller consumption of dairy
products, would inevitably lead to a decrease
in production.
As a matter of fact, numbers released in
June by the IBGE, regarding a survey of the
acquisition of inspected milk in the first quar-
ter in 2016, pointed to a new decrease in the
amount of milk produced: down 6.8% from
the previous quarter and 4.5% from the same
period in 2015. In most states, there was a de-
crease in the production of milk. On the oth-
er hand, most big dairy farms did not reduce
their milk producing capacity, according to a
survey known as Top100 Milkpoint 2016. Al-
though registering smallest rates over the past
five years, they soared 2.2% in 2015, with an
average of 15,486 liters a day, and the major-
ity of the dairy farms (92%) are determined
to continue expanding their production vol-
umes.
A hole in the bucket
The upward trend in the production of milk in Brazil is facing
an interruption, with unfavorable prices and production costs,
alongwith shrinking demand because of the crisis
On the top, smaller decline
Just like what occurred with the biggest
farms, the main dairy factors that operate
in Brazil kept growing in 2015, but equally
at a slower path. According to information
released by Brazil Milk Association, based
on surveys conducted by entities of the
sector, the 15 biggest dairy manufacturers
increased by 1.2% their milk purchases this
year, totaling 9.86 billion liters, whilst in
2014 the increase had totaled 8.9% over the
previous year. Thus, their idle time rose
from 33.8% to 37.9%.
The list of the 15 biggest companies
is led by Nestlé, with 1.77 billion liters.
It is followed by the French company
Lactalis do Brasil, by CCPR/Itambé and by
Laticínio BelaVista, while the fifth position
is occupied by the group of Castrolanda,
Frísia and Capal cooperatives. The
highlight in this group was Vigor, which
jumped from the 11th to the 8th position.
In general, relying on an analysis by Scot
Consultancy, the 2015 scenario was a
reflection of the economic results, under
pressure from higher production costs and
smaller margins and investments by the
producers.
T he acquisition
of inspected
milk was down
3
percent in
2015
Sílvio Ávila
8
