27
T
he weakened prices in the inter-
national scenario, by virtue of
rising supply, is one of the rea-
sons that accounts for the 3.3
percent drop in in the size of
the 2017/18 global crop, disclosed by the
US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in
June, with chances to amount to no more
than 1.032 billion tons. It would represent
a decrease of 35.3 million tons. Global con-
sumption, however, will continue soaring
at the rate of 2.7%, to 1.062 billion tons (28
million tons more). With demand outstrip-
ping supply, the global stocks, at the end of
the 2017/18 commercial year could shrink
by 13.5 percent, representing 194.3 million
tons. The volume is equivalent to 66 days of
global consumption.
TheUSDA report released in June antic-
ipates that within this scenario world corn
trade will drop to 152.9 million tons, or 3.6
percent. Some nations will consume a por-
tion of the stocks to balance their domes-
tic needs.
After the record crop in the current sea-
son,whoseexactvolumewillonlybeknown
in July, after an evaluation of the losses and
productivity levels resulting from excessive
precipitation in some corn growing regions,
USDA officials estimate that the size of the
crop in the United States will drop 7.1 per-
cent, to 357.3 million tons. There will be in-
terference in this behavior coming from the
instability of the positions of the Trump gov-
ernment regarding agriculture finance and
declining planting intentions.
In Brazil, the 2017/18 growing season
Productioninline
with demand
Global 2017/18 crop tends to be
smallerinsize,butconsumptioncontinuestosoar
andcouldlendsupporttointernationalprices
should shrink by 2.1 percent, to 95 mil-
lion tons (from the current projected 97
million tons), according to USDA bulletin,
despite the bigger planted area. The re-
duction has to do with the declining per-
formance per area. Price (with scarce use
of technology) and climate will affect the
corn fields.
In the meantime, consumption of three
of the four leading consumers should grow
at record levels in the coming season. The
exception is the European Union (EU28),
as the region will outstrip demand over
the 2016/17 period, but will still remain be-
low its biggest consumption in history, 77.9
million tons in the 2014/15 crop year (to-
taling 315.6 million tons) and China (with
238 million tons), together, they represent
upwards of 50 percent of international de-
mand for corn in the entire planet. Brazil,
fourth biggest global consumer, will use its
recordcropof 61.5million tons for its differ-
ent needs.
n
Inor Ag. Assmann
no mapa
on the map
O Brasil no ranking mundial do
milho – Ciclo 2016/17
* Considerando União Europeia (UE28).
Fonte:
USDA, junho de 2017.
Atividade Posição Volume
(milhões de t)
Produção
3º
97,0
Consumo*
4º
60,5
Exportações
2º
34,0
Estoque
3º
9,8
