tons. “The currency depreciation between
2014 and 2015 transformed Brazilian corn
into a cheap and competitive commodi-
ty abroad, but kept prices profitable in the
national currency”, he explains. The failure
of the winter crop in 2016 caused offer to
shrink and strengthened domestic prices.
Throughout 2016 and early 2017 the
value of the Brazilian currency increased
and this affected the competitive edge. Cli-
ents began to seek other suppliers over
the six final months in 2016, and Brazil
shipped little corn abroad. This scenario
held true until June 2017, when low do-
mestic prices lent support to the resump-
tion of sales abroad. However, with the
projection of a huge summer crop and in-
ternational buyers reluctant to acquire
corn, prices started to decline.
The high prices in 2016 encouraged
the farmers to devote bigger areas to the
second crop, resulting into a record crop.
“The bigger harvested volume immedi-
ately caused the reference values to fall,
keeping pace with the shrinking demand
from abroad and from shrinking demand
at home, further affecting the prices un-
til the second half of 2017”, says Miranda.
It is a situation that, in view of the dimen-
sion of offer and stocks, along with the in-
ternational scenario, should last through-
out 2018.
n
CURVASACENTUADAS
steep bends
Evolução dos preços médios do
milho no Brasil - Indicador Esalq/
BM&FBovespa - (60 kg – à vista)
Fonte:Cepea/Esalq/USP.
|
*Em12de julhode2017.
Data
R$
US$
07/2015
25,99
8,07
12/2015
35,33
9,13
03/2016
47,79
12,94
05/2016
51,48
14,55
07/2016
44,42
13,56
12/2016
38,29
11,43
01/2017
35,92
11,25
02/2017
36,21
11,67
03/2017
33,77
10,80
04/2017
28,32
9,02
05/2017
27,76
8,66
06/2017
26,75
8,12
07/2017*
27,05
8,44
Na ponta do lápis
on the tip of the pencil
Balanço brasileiro de oferta e demanda de milho
Fonte:
Conab, julho de 2017.
Safra
Estoque inicial
Produção Importação Suprimento Consumo Exportação Estoque final
2011/12
4.459,6
72.979,5
774,0
78.213,1
51.903,0
22.313,7
3.996,4
2012/13
3.996,4
81.505,7
911,4
86.413,5
53.287,9
26.174,1
6.951,5
2013/14
6.951,5
80.051,7
790,7
87.793,9
54.541,6
20.924,8
12.327,5
2014/15
12.327,5
84.672,4
316,1
97.316,0
56.742,4
30.172,3
10.401,3
2015/16
10.401,3
66.530,6
3.338,1
80.270,0
53.387,8
18.883,2
7.999,0
2016/17
7.999,0
96.026,2
500,0
104.525,2
56.100,0
28.000,0
20.425,2
