T
he milk sector in Brazil, which
had been soaring year after
year, interrupted its sequence
in 2015, with a 3.5-percent re-
duction, due to low prices and
high production costs, say sources from
the Brazilian Institute of Geography and
Statistics (IBGE). The seesaw turned again
and prices made a recovery due to scarce
offer, which came to a close with the all-
time record of R$ 1.69 per liter in August
2016 – from data furnished by the Center
for Applied Studies on Advanced Econom-
ics (Cepea), of the Luiz de Queiroz College
of Agriculture (Esalq), a division São Pau-
lo State University (USP). Soon after, how-
ever, “the steep rise in imports, along with
the arrival of the new crop from all ma-
jor milk producing regions, caused prices
to fall considerably”, say sources from the
Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and
Livestock (CNA).
In late 2016, estimates by analysts point-
ed to new decreases in the amount of milk
produced over the year, at levels close to
1%, as is the case of the projection, in Octo-
ber 2016, by Maria Helena Fagundes, from
the National Food Supply Agency (Conab).
Scot Consultancy, at its survey, ascertained
a drop of 0.7% from January to November,
compared to the same period in the previ-
ousyear,inspiteoftherecoveryoverthepast
months. A quarterly survey by the IBGE, until
September, was still pointing to a reduction
of 4.9%, compared to what had been ascer-
tained up to thatmoment in 2015.
Even so, dairy imports increased great-
ly, thebiggest since 2000 in the case of pow-
dered milk. According to CNA officials, the
fact was “a reflection of the productive sce-
nario and higher prices, compared to the
neighboring countries”, Argentina and Uru-
guay, where the bulk of the imported dairy
products (over 90%) come from. From
January to October 2016, the shortfall of
the balance of trade amounted to almost
US$ 400 million. Powdered milk imports
amounted to 1.117 billion liters, up 75%
from the same period in 2015, was the con-
clusion reached by Plataforma Intelactus,
fromEmbrapa Dairy Cattle.
Although having achieved high levels
over the year, the average national farm
gate price, from January to November,
Milkpricereachesall-timehighin2016, inlinewithlowproduction,
butrecedesatthedawnofthenewseason,alongwithsoaringimports
From
overheated
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DairyCattle
Inor Ag. Assmann
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