NOJARRO
Inthebucket
ProduçãodeleitenoBrasil
Ano
Milhõesdelitros
2014
35.124
2015
35.000
2016*
34.650
Fonte:IBGE.*Estimativa:Conab.
OSESTADOSDOLEITE
Principaisestados/2015
MinasGerais
9.145
Paraná
4.660
RioGrandedoSul
4.600
Goiás
3.518
SantaCatarina
3.060
Fonte:IBGE.
FROMDEFENSE
TOOFFENSE
Regarding the next 10 years, the pro-
jection is for the productive sector to heat
up again and keep its rising trend. Until
2026, theMinistry of Agriculture, Livestock
and Food Supply (Mapa), in Projections of
Brazil Agribusiness 2015/16-2025/26, an-
ticipates a 25.6-percent increase in pro-
duction throughout the Country, now
ranking as fifth biggest global producer
(at a rate of 2.3% to 3.1% a year). Domes-
tic consumption is supposed to go up by
23.6% (2.2% a year) and exports are pro-
jected to soar about 46.3%, whist imports
are likely to go down 6.9%.
The São Paulo State Industry Federa-
tion (Fiesp), in its document Outlook Fiesp
2016, in turn, projects a production growth
of 30% (2.4% a year) and 20% in per cap-
ita consumption, while the herd is expect-
ed to increase by 1% (to 22.1million head).
The South is supposed tomake the biggest
strides (from 35% to 41% of the total), fol-
lowed by the Center-West (from 14% to
15%). In Mapa’s document, Embrapa Dairy
Cattle, linked with the ministry, points to
“a relative growth in foreign trade”. Finally,
the document recalls that supply over the
past 20 years went up about 4% a year and
“there ismuch technology that needs to be
incorporated, with reflections on the pro-
ductivity of the herd”.
Milk supply, lagging behind in
2015, should come to a close in
2016 with further reduction
was up 5% from the same period in 2015
– R$ 1.098 per liter, value corrected to the
General Price Index – Internal Availability
(IGP-DI), from a survey by Scot Consultan-
cy. As far as production costs go, the same
source ascertained in the meantime an in-
crease of 22%. This increase in the pro-
duction costs adversely affected the mar-
gins of the activity, so that, in 2016, from
an analysis of the Consultancy firm, “the
scenario remained cautious, with low in-
vestments and reduction in expenses,
with impacts upon production”.
On the other hand, Conab sources
consider 2016 a continuity of the picture
in the reduction of domestic demand,
stemming from the shrinking purchas-
ing power, a fact that should suffer no
changes throughout 2017, according to
CNA officials. However, there is expecta-
tion for gradual progress, in the vision of
Scot, which could likewise have a direct
influence on the prices. The Consultan-
cy also anticipates higher prices in the in-
ternational market and a more appreci-
ated dollar, contributing towards curbing
imports. In short, in the evaluation of the
consultancy the Picture “could get a little
better for the dairy activity” over the new
year, anticipating ‘bigger supplies com-
pared to 2015 and 2016, however, without
any production surpluses”.
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