Corn
I
f in 2016 Brazil experienced crop failures
and record prices for corn, with difficul-
ties in supplying the segments of feed
andmeat, along with low stocks, in 2017
the focus of the supply chain should be
an all-time record crop of 84.48million tons,
according to estimates by theNational Food
Supply Agency (Conab). The estimate is for
28.4 million tons in the summer crop and
56.08million tons in thewinter crop.
With scant supplyat home, in2016Brazil
registered the biggest volume of imports in
20 years, some 2.5million tons. It happened
becauseof theatypical scenario, withexces-
sive shipments abroad in 2015/16, taking
advantageofanactiveinternationalmarket,
favorable exchange rate, alongwitha reduc-
tion in the planted area of the summer crop.
The winter crop was adversely affected by
bad weather conditions and a delay of the
soybean crop in the Cerrado regions.
A 60-kg sack of corn fetched an aver-
age price of more than R$ 60 in the South
of the Country, in the first half of 2016.
Though smaller than initially estimated,
the second crop solved the supply prob-
lems, reduced average prices and set
more balanced prices for the second half
of the year. In general, prices remained
high above production costs bringing re-
lief to cash-strapped farmers.
The scenario will suffer a complete
change in 2017, says Thomé Luiz Freire
Guth, Conab analyst, due to bigger sup-
plies and higher ending stocks in Brazil, in
Mercosur and in the United States, with
international prices equally lower. Favor-
able weather conditions and the good
prices fetched in the previous season en-
couraged the farmers to grow corn. As
a result, the total area went up 1.1%, ac-
cording to estimates, to 16.09 million
hectares, in light of the 15.92 million tons
resulting from the sum of the two crops in
the 2015/16 growing season. Equally, be-
cause of the climate and investment in
technology, productivity is estimated to
soar 25.6%, to 5,249 kilograms per hectare.
Afterachievingthebestsalespricesin2016,cornpriceswillrecedeto
normallevelsinlightoftheall-timerecordcropabouttobeharvested
Onthecrest
ofawave
The two Brazilian crops together
will reach 84.48 million tons
Sílvio Ávila
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