GRÃOPOP
Popgrain
QuadrodeOfertaeDemandadeMilho–Brasil
Safra
Estoqueinicial
Produção Importação Suprimento
Consumo
Exportação Estoquefinal
2012/13
3.996,4
81.505,7
911,4
86.413,5
53.287,9
26.174,1
6.951,5
2013/14
6.951,5
80.051,7
790,7
87.793,9
54.541,6
20.924,8
12.327,5
2014/15
12.327,5
84.672,4
316,1
97.316,0
56.742,4
30.172,3
10.401,3
2015/16
10.401,3
66.570,8
2.400,0
79.372,1
53.387,8
18.000,0
7.984,3
2016/17
7.984,3
84.480,2
500,0
92.964,5
56.100,0
24.000,0
12.864,5
Fonte:Conab,janeirode2017.
YELLOWWORLD
The world will also harvest a bigger crop, resulting into massive stocks in 2017. In December 2016, the US Department of Agriculture
(USDA) published a global supply and demand picture estimating the global production of corn at upwards or one billion tons. Even with
consumptionoutstripping this volume, final stocks should remainat 222.24million tons, anall-time record, generatingastock/consumption
relation of 21.9%. This trend is responsible for keeping a bushel belowUS$ 3.50 at the Chicago stock exchange.
TheBrazilianmarketreliesonfuturespricesforthesecondcropinMatoGrosso,rangingfromR$16toR$17persack,inarealitythatdifferscom-
pletelyfrom2016.“Withtheseprices,theedgeliesinthecompetitivenessinexportinginthefirsthalfoftheyear”,recognizesConabanalystThomé
Luiz Freire Guth. On his part, Paulo Molinari, analyst with Safras & Mercado, understands that the first half of 2017 will present a scenario of bal-
ancedoffer anddemand,whichwould limit drops incornprices. However,with the recordcrop that is expected for 2017, Brazilmight be forced to
shipabroad30milliontonsthisyear.“Withouttheseexports,therewillbetoomuchcornavailable,resultingintoatrendoffallingprices”,hewarns.
Inorder to reverse this trend, themarket needs anewfact, but Guth recognizes that, at themoment, there is hardly any expectation toward
this end. “This new fact would by a huge national or international crop failure, a significant jump of the exchange rate or a relevant variation in
theChicago stock exchange”, hementions. “And there is noperspective for this tohappen. Therefore, the trend is formuch lower cornprices in
2017,which, if for one thing it isbad for the farmers, on theother hand, it is apositive factor for the segmentsof feed,milkandmeat”.
81
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SOLUÇÕES LOGÍSTICAS COM CONTROLE DE
TEMPERATURA E UMIDADE PARA O AGRONEGÓCIO
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NO BRASIL
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