T
he checks and balances in the
pork year tilted toward a posi-
tive balance in late 2017 and the
expectations for 2018 remained
favorable. Although affected
by the persistent effects from the econom-
ic crisis and a small reduction in the volume
shipped abroad, a minor increase was reg-
istered in production and consumption, as
well as in the revenue fromexports and from
domestic sales. For the new year, the projec-
tions suggested growth in several indicators,
based on the 2 to 3 percent bigger supply of
pig meat in the country that ranks as fourth
biggestglobalproducerandexporterofpork.
To this end, the Brazilian Association of Pig
Breeders (ABCS), in turn, ascertained that do-
mestic prices continued stable, while over
the year, in 10 months, they show some in-
creasefrom2016.Asforproductioncosts,the
price of a sack of corn, the main component
in livestock feed, dropped considerably over
the period, “creating a rather interesting con-
textforthepigfarmersandleadingtoarecov-
eryofpartofthelossesaccumulatedoverthe
past year”. With regard to shipments abroad,
with a small drop in volume, chief executive
officer Nilo de Sá observed that “the result is
still much higher than the historical average
of the Country” and that “the performance
was again relevant to guarantee pork prices
in thedomestic scenario”.
The volume of 700 thousand tons export-
ed in 2017, according to the forecast, “was a
victory for the sector”, says Francisco Turra,
presidentattheABPA.Herecalledthatthere-
sultsoftheyearsurpassedtheinitialexpecta-
tions, stemming from the impacts generated
by the equivocal decisions by the so-called
Operation Weak Flesh. He mentioned in-
creasesintheRussianmarket(themainone),
andinthemarketsinArgentinaandUruguay,
l
DOMESTIC MARKETING
Francisco Turra, from ABPA, with regard to 2017, he praised that
“theBraziliandomesticmarket conqueredbackpart of the consump-
tion levels lost over the two past years, due to the economic down-
turn”. He also expressed his understanding that “the consolidation of
the economy resumption should keep demand on the rise, despite a
possibly troubled political scenario”. Likewise, Nilo de Sá, fromABCS,
expressedwith regard to thismarket, “which consumes from80 to 85
percent of the national production, perspectives for a recovery of the
economy, although the high unemployment rate affects income and
consumption”. And even “in light of a certain degree of uncertainty
generated by the presidential elections in 2018”, he said that “there
is a positive perspective for the economy in the coming years, which
is supposed to contribute in a very positivemanner towards domestic
demand for pork and towards farmgate prices”.
Positive
balance
Amid the talks on the pros and cons of the activity
during 2017, final resultswere considered
favorable for pork, while expectations are renewed
withrespectiveincreasesof8%,32%e9%up
to themonthof November and, in themean-
time, the high Chinese stocks were responsi-
ble for a 50 percent drop in the purchases of
the Asian giant, third biggest market for Bra-
zil, coming after Russia and Hong Kong, and
biggest global importer.
The official of the animal protein entity
recalled that the relative exchange rate sta-
bility over long periods in 2017 favored ex-
ports, while the balanced costs ensured a
better international competitive capacity to
the sector. From January to November, the
exported volume dropped 5.6 percent (to
643.5 thousand tons) and revenue soared
nearly10percent, toUS$1.5billion. With re-
gard to 2018, he believed in good perspec-
tives, with chances for 4 to 5 percent high-
er shipments abroad, achieving levels very
close to the record volumes of 732 thou-
sand tons shipped abroad in 2016. Within
this context, he hoped for Russia to resume
its import volumes, as the embargo against
Brazilian pork was finally solved, besides
the influence coming from theWorld Cup in
that Country, not tomention the positive ef-
fects coming from new markets like South
Korea, Peru and South Africa.
balançodosuínobrasileiro•
SCENARIOOFBRAZILIANPIGS
Números e projeções para a carne suínanofinal de 2017
Anos
2016
2017
Variação (%)
Produção (mil t)
3.731
3.759
+ 0,7
Exportação (mil t)
732
693
- 5,4
Consumo (un./hab)
14,4
14,7
+ 1,7
Fonte:ABPA,dezembrode2017.
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