l
READY TOMEET DEMAND
Productivity of the new Brazilian crop was initially estimated to be
down6.2percent fromthe recordof theprevious year, 3,364 kilograms
per hectare, although, in general, climate conditions were favorable,
inducingthepublicorgantoraiseitsprojectionfromDecember2017to
January 2018. Therefore, production could again surpass the consid-
erable amount of 110 million tons, in line with the prognoses of some
consultancies and perspectives previously expressed by the Brazilian
Confederationof Agriculture and Livestock (CNA). “The volume should
be similar to last year,with thenewareas in theMatopiba region (Mara-
nhão, Tocantins, Piauí andBahia), cultivationof soyonpasturelands in
the Center-West and corn in the South, with the farmers holding on to
their investments”, Conab officials say.
For the future, theexpectation is for soy consumption tocontinueon
a rising trend in theworld, withBrazil in thepositionas big supplier. Chi-
na, which in 2017 purchased 53.8 million tons of soy from Brazil (79%
of the total soy exports by the Country), should have an additional de-
mand of about 35million tons of soybean within the next 10 years, and
theBrazilian farmers couldsupplyabout 80percent of this volume, from
anevaluationconductedby Lief ChiangandVictor Ikeda, for Rabobank.
According to the study, demandby Chinawill growas a result of ur-
banizationmoves and the consolidationof livestock farming, especial-
ly pigs. In a comparison with the United States and Argentina, Brazil is
in better conditions to meet this demand. To this end, and for the do-
mestic needs, like bigger absorption by biodiesel, the study maintains
that theCountry shouldexpand itsplantedareaand thiswill specifical-
ly by grown the cereal on former pasturelands.
sive shocks, they did not expect relevant
changes in prices in the short and medi-
um run. They observed that the interest
in the kernel, just like the interest in meal
and oil, continues steady. In themeantime,
the preference of the farmers for soy, to the
detriment of other cereal crops, keeps the
supply of the oilseed stable.
Overtheyears,nevertheless,theymain-
tain that the profitability of the farmers is
on the decline and themargin of the crush-
ers does not improve. Anyway, as Conabof-
ficials reiterate, in a survey on the 2017/18
Brazilian crop, stimuli coming from the
agility, stability and liquidity in soybean
sales induce the farmers to expand their
planted areas, year after year. In early 2018,
it was estimated that the planted area
would go up 3.2 percent, with expansions
taking place in all Brazilian regions and in
almost all the 18 states where the cereal is
grown, more in theNorth/Northeast (4.2%)
and in states like Maranhão, in the North-
east (12%); Pará, in theNorth, and SãoPau-
lo, in the Southeast, with 7%; Santa Catari-
na, in the South, andMatoGrossodoSul, in
the Center-West, nearly 5 percent.
EXPORTAÇÃOBRASILEIRADOCOMPLEXOSOJAEMGRÃO
•
BRAZILIANSOYBEANEXPORTCOMPLEX
Ano
2016
2017
Valor (US$mil)
19.331.325
25.718.422
Peso (T)
51.581.875
68.154.809
Principais importadores (Emt)
China
38.563.909
53.796.980
Ásia (excetoChina)
4.336.048
5.275.129
União Europeia
5.279.870
5.191.076
FARELO
Valor (US$mil)
5.192.781
4.973.331
Peso (T)
14.443.792
14.177.057
Principais importadores (Emt)
União Europeia
7.975.607
7.501.666
Ásia (excetoChina)
5.262.967
5.748.957
OrienteMédio
1.011.724
576.617
ÓLEO
Valor (US$mil)
898.271
1.031.162
Peso (T)
1.254.928
1.342.519
Principais importadores (Emt)
Ásia (excetoChina)
643.604
674.898
China
249.569
335.240
África
190.093
152.704
Fonte:Abiove.
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