CoffeeproductioninBrazilcouldvaryfrom43
to47millionsacks,withareductionfrom7.5%
to15%duetotheoff-yearofitsbiennialcycle
I
n odd-numbered years, like 2017, the
Brazilian coffee plantations produce less
because they are off-years of low pro-
duction, even if all other conditions are
favorable. After experiencing the feeling
of harvesting the biggest volume of coffee
on record in 2016, or in the 2016/17 growing
season, the Country is again going through
the off-year of the biennial cycle, at a mo-
ment of tight ending stocks. The produc-
tionof Arabicaandconiloncoffee couldvary
from 43.65 and 47.51 million 60-kg sacks of
processed coffee in 2017, or in the 2017/18
crop year, say sources from the National
Food Supply Agency (Conab), in the survey
released in January 2017. The average of
these twovolumes, inferior andsuperior, re-
mained at 45.58million sacks of coffee.
None of these three results forecast by
the Conab will outstrip the 51.369 million
sacks of coffee produced in 2016. As things
are, the reduction is supposed to range from
7.5% to 15%. A great part of this decline will
stemfromthe smaller production volume of
Arabica coffee, which, in the off-year of its bi-
ennial cycle is subject to smaller productiv-
ity levels compared to the previous on-year
of large production. Arabica coffee’s share is
about 80%of the total amount of coffeepro-
duced in Brazil. Conab officials are project-
ing a crop from 35.01 to 37.88 million sacks
of Arabica in 2017. This volume represents
a reduction of 19.3% to 12.7%. The small-
er supply will stem from the reductions of
2.3% in theplantedareaand fromthe 10.7%
and 17.4% in productivity. The considerable
amount of 43.38millionsacksof Arabica, the
biggest on record, were harvested in2016.
Coniloncoffeeaccountsfor20%oftheto-
tal produced in the Country. Conab officials
are expecting a crop that ranges from 8.64
to 9.63 million sacks in 2017, meaning an in-
crease from8.1% to 20.5%. The increase will
mainly derive from the recovery of the pro-
ductivity rates in the States of Bahia and
Rondônia. The bigger volume is still a reflec-
tion of more intensive use of technologies,
like clonal coffee and soaring investments at
field level. The State of Espírito Santo, lead-
ing conilon producer (68.5% in 2016), due to
the smaller planted area, brought about by
deficient rainfalls over the past three years,
shouldharvest a volume almost as big as the
5.04milliontonsharvestedin2016.Asweath-
er conditions have improved, average pro-
ductivity is estimated at 19.56 to 22.49 sacks
per hectare, meaning a recovery from the
average of the previous year. The State pro-
duced9.95millionsacks in2014.
The average productivity of Arabica and
conilon is estimated to reach from23.02and
25.05 sacks per hectare in 2017, equivalent
to a reduction ranging from 4.9% to 12.6%.
The decline is supposed to occur in all ma-
jor coffee producing regions, except in the
states and regions where conilon planta-
tions prevail, mainly due to the forecast of
better weather conditions. In Zona da Mata,
inMinas Gerais and Paraná, Arabica is in the
Natural
decline
Arabica coffee is more
affected by the on-year and
off-year of the biennial cycle
Sílvio Ávila
18
