The2017/18growingseasonis
expectedtoincreaseitsplantedarea,
butthetrendisforproductivity
togetbacktonormallevels
T
he first projections for the
coming Brazilian soy crop,
in the 2017/18 crop year, re-
leased before planting started
in early September 2017, in-
dicate that the planted area will continue
on the rise, but the size of the crop is like-
ly to shrink slightly, considering the above-
normal productivity rates achieved in the
previous year. The National Food Supply
Agency (Conab), projectedanarea increase
ranging from2% to 3%, and a 4.4% to 6.2%
smaller volume. “This happens because
productivity is likely to remain behind the
3,364 kilograms per hectare achieved in
the 2016/17 growing season, an above av-
erage figure not likely to be achieved in the
subsequent seasons”, comments Conab
analyst Leonardo Amazonas.
The bigger planted area, according to
his analysis, should occur by virtue of the
liquidity of the oilseed and its higher prof-
it margins compared to other cereals, while
the biodiesel expansion policy in the Coun-
try is also a factor. As limiting factors, just
like what happened in 2015, he cites inter-
national prices and the low dollar value,
facts that do not encourage further crop ex-
pansions. As for the climate, the analyst as-
certains that the initial forecasts point to
neutrality and, in principle, the factor is not
supposed to exert any relevant influence.
Considering intermediate rates project-
ed by Conab, the new soybean season in
Brazil could amount to 34.76 million hect-
ares (up 2.5%) and 108 million tons (down
5.3%), which would reach a performance
of 3,107 kilograms per hectare. In spite
Back to
normal
A bigger areadevoted to soybean inBrazil is anticipated,
but the size of the crop is supposed to shrink slightly
of a smaller production volume, accord-
ing to Leonardo Amazonas, the projected
amount would be “satisfactory to the ex-
pected demand throughout 2018”, equally
taking into account the bigger ending stock
registered in the 2016/17 crop year, which,
basedon the company’s survey, represents
the biggest rate with regard to consump-
tion over the past eight years.
Estimates for the new oilseed crop, by
several private analysts, at the turn of Au-
gust and September 2017, are very close
to official estimates. Likewise, they point
to an area increase slightly higher than 2%,
but with a crop size smaller than predict-
ed by Conab, which is supposed to remain
around 3%. One of the features stressed in
these forecasts, corroborated by official or-
gans, is that the oilseed should occupy ar-
eas previously devoted to corn, especially
in the South of the Country, in light of the
smaller price of this cereal. In view of this,
they observe that, while corn is expect-
ed to make strides in the winter crop, soy-
bean will firmly stick to its position as lead-
ing summer crop.
n
Sílvio Ávila
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