Critical point
Dairy segment in the world is going through a prolonged crisis,
with low prices stemming from an imbalance between offer anddemand
mento geral de produção no mundo, com
situação favorável, sendo por isso considera-
da mais severa do que a anterior.
Mesmo assim, previsões existentes in-
dicam que ainda deve haver aumento pro-
dutivo de leite de vaca em 2016 no mundo.
A Embrapa cita estimativa de 2%, enquan-
to a Companhia Nacional de Abastecimen-
to (Conab), com base em projeções de or-
ganismos internacionais, aponta 1,4% em
16 países/blocos produtores, que já teriam
tido acréscimo de 1,2% em 2015. Os prin-
cipais exportadores (Nova Zelândia, União
Europeia, Estados Unidos, Austrália e Ar-
gentina), no entanto, cresceriam um pou-
co menos (0,8 a 0,9%), mas os EUA pode-
riam ampliar em 2%.
Os norte-americanos, se considerados
somente países e não blocos, lideram a
produção mundial de leite de vaca. E, con-
forme avaliações feitas, preços menores
ainda sustentariam suas margens e a maior
produção, assim como a demanda interna
firme. Já levando em conta a União Euro-
peia, esta fica na liderança. Em termos ape-
nas de países, o Brasil ocupa a quarta po-
sição mundial, enquanto no outro ranking
fica em quinto lugar. Ainda em nível mun-
dial, pesquisas da Conab, em março de
2016, confirmam estimativa de manuten-
ção da pressão baixista dos preços das
commodities lácteas, mas apontam possí-
vel recuperação no segundo semestre.
In a scenario of low international prices,
the global dairy sector is going through one
of its longest crises in its recent history. This
was the conclusion drawn by the socioeco-
nomic team at Embrapa Dairy Cattle, in April
2016. Based on the International Farm Com-
parison Network (IFCN), themembers of the
team observe a downtrend in farm gate pric-
es for 9 months in a row, with no indications
in sight for a change in this trend. The blame
goes to an increase in production following a
period of attractive remuneration; however,
the present critical moment is not supposed
to curb the oversupply trend.
For a forecast of the continuity of the cri-
sis, Embrapa analysts take into account the
influence of the productive growth under-
way in Europe, due to the end of the quota
system in the European Union (EU), in April
2015. The increase is estimated at 2.4% in
the first quarter in 2016, in comparison with
the same period in the previous year. They
also mention the interference of such factors
as the depreciation of the national curren-
cies against the dollar and China’s economic
slowdown, once this country is a relevant im-
porter. Its smaller demand is believed to have
affected international trade in 2015.
Lorildo Stock, one of the team members
and Brazilian collaborator at the IFCN, in-
ternational network of studies on milk pro-
duction systems and the economy of the
sector, comments that 2015 witnessed the
third crisis in nine years. The two most se-
rious crises were registered in 2009 and
2015, with average prices below US$ 30
for 100 kilograms, following years of prices
above historical averages, of US$ 40/100 ki-
lograms. The last crisis erupted after a gen-
eral production increase in the world, when
conditions were unfavorable, and is, there-
fore, more severe than the previous one.
Even so, predictions point to further milk
production increases throughout 2016 in
the world. Embrapa estimates a 2 percent in-
crease, whilst the National Food Supply Agen-
cy (Conab), on the grounds of projections re-
leased by international organs, points to 1.4%
in 16 producing countries/blocs, which are
supposed to have had an increase of 1.2% in
2015. The main exporters (New Zealand, the
European Union, the United States, Australia
and Argentina), nevertheless, were supposed
to experience a smaller growth rate (0.8 to
0.9%), but the United States could experience
a rise of 2% in production.
The North-American countries, if only na-
tions are considered and not blocs, lead the
global production of bovine milk. And, ac-
cording to evaluations, smaller prices would
still sustain the margins and higher produc-
tion, just like stable domestic demand. How-
ever, taking into consideration the European
Union, it occupies the leading position. Just
in terms of countries, Brazil comes as fourth
biggest global producer, whilst in the previ-
ous ranking it occupies the fifth position.
Equally, at global level, Conab surveys, re-
leased in March 2016, confirm the perspec-
tive of a continuity of the low prices of the
dairy commodities, but suggest a possible re-
covery in the second half of the year.
19
Fonte:
IBGE-Mapa/Embrapa (dados Brasil), USDA/FAS e OECD/
FAO (outros 15 países/blocos) – Referente a 2014 – Conab.
1. UE (28)
146.500.000
2. Estados Unidos
93.461.000
3. Índia
60.500.000
4. China
37.250.000
5. Brasil
36.300.000
Total 16 selecionados
495.292.000
Fonte:
FAO/IBGE – Dados 2013 – Intelactus/Embrapa
Gado de Leite.
PANORAMAMUNDIAL
Global panorama
Principais produtores de leite
de vaca (Em toneladas)
1. Estados Unidos
91.271.058
2. Índia
60.600.000
3. China
35.670.002
4. Brasil
34.255.236
5. Alemanha
31.122.000
Total geral
635.575.895
