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Asprincipais
MAINVEGETABLES
Scarce
supply
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Traditional cropisgoingthroughatightsupplyperiod
andhigherprices,butnotyetenoughtostimulatethisactivity
C
assava, one of the most tra-
ditional crops, at which the
Country was once the lead-
er in production, is experienc-
ing a period of stability and
even a decrease in production, according
to the initial perspectives in 2017. Although
still outstripping all the volumes of the oth-
er olericulture crops, with annual numbers
reaching about 23 million tons, the edible
root could register a decrease of about 12%
in volume in 2017, according to official esti-
mates released in February.
“Despite relevant strides in research, re-
sulting into higher productivity at farmand
industry levels, Brazil has reduced its pro-
duction volume over the past years”, ob-
serves Methodio Groxko, economist with
the Rural Economy Department (Deral),
of the Paraná State Secretariat of Agricul-
ture and Supply (Seab). Paraná is located
in South Brazil and stands out for the pro-
duction of cassava (2º bigger) and starch
(1º). Despite the good economic results
achieved in 2016, due to tighter supply, no
reaction of the crop is expected.
According to the analyst, this stems from
the lack of labor, and from the lack of avail-
ableland,alongwiththepreferenceforcrops
like soybean and corn, which grow faster.
Furthermore, he registers a shortage of qual-
ity cassava stems and discouragement stem-
mingfromthe2015cropyear.Ifallfactorsare
included,insteadofmorelanddevotedtothe
crop in 2017, the forecast at the turn of the
year pointed to a possible decrease in plant-
ed area, with a consequent smaller produc-
tionvolume,intheStateofParaná,afactthat
shouldoccur in theentireCountry.
In 2016, according to figures estimat-
ed by the Brazilian Institute of Geography
and Statistics (IBGE), the area devoted to
the crop increased slightly, and so did the
size of the crop in the Country (respective-
ly 2.2%and 2.8%), after the reduction in the
previousperiod. Theyearwasmarkedby re-
cord nominal prices in some periods, due to
smaller supply throughout most of the year
and soaring industrial demand, concluded
the Center for Applied Studies on Advanced
Economics (Cepea), of the Luiz de Queiroz
College of Agriculture (Esalq), a division of
theUniversity of São Paulo (USP).
Inviewofthis,amoreexpressiveadvance
wasexpected,afactthatdidnotoccur,which,
according to the Cepea officials, was equal-
ly a consequence deriving from the reality of
debt-ridden farmers and reduced availability
of credit lines for crop funding resources. Asa
matter of fact, severe drops were registered,
particularly in the main producing and pro-
cessing states, like Paraná and Mato Grosso
do Sul. Judging from IBGE’s initial estimates,
both of them decreased their production in
2016,respectivelyby13%and26%,whilstfor
2017 theprojection for cropdeclines for both
reached26%and4.5%.
In the State of Pará, leading producer in
Brazil, IBGE sources confirm a production
increase of 28% in 2016, but for 2017 pro-
jections point to a decrease of 17%. Anoth-
er northern State, Amazonas, stood out for
a sharp increase (108%) that year, but for the
new growing season there was an estimated
decline of 50%. And in the third biggest pro-
ducer, the State of Bahia, in the Northeast,
decreases are estimated for the two years
(11% and 7%), and the same holds true for
Rio Grande do Sul (4%and 3%), while in São
Paulo a confirmation is expected for the rise
involume (4%) andadrop (14%).
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Less flour in the bag
With a shortage of rawmaterial, the industrial products equally grew scarcer and prices soared. “The scarce supply of cassava,
especially in the second half of the year, as well as the extraction of small amounts of starch had an influence on the declining an-
nual production of fecula, after two years of growth”, according to an evaluation by Cepea officials relative to 2016. They estimated
a 2.4-percent decline in this derivative, besides referring to smaller retail sales. For 2017, they anticipated a trend for declining pro-
duction and higher prices, limiting possible strides in demand.
With regard to cassava flour, the Cepea officials have noproductionnumbers, but recall that, with the higher price of the rawma-
terial (an average of 125%), its prices were running high throughoutmost of the year 2016, a fact thatmust have had an influence on
consumption. In general, they observe that demand for the product, mostly concentrated in the North and Northeast of the Coun-
try, “experienced a decline in most Brazilian regions, due to changes in the food patterns of the population”. In 2017, the trend was
for a possible decline in the volume of cassava to be processed, with impacts upon themarket.
Still on the subject of cassava in Brazil, the analyst fromParaná, Methodio Groxko, highlights the influence from the shortage of
labor, the droughts in the Northeast, price oscillations and slow recovery, because it is a long-run crop. In the future, he has it that,
in parallel with the strides in research works focused on the productive process, “there is need to pursue newmarket alternatives,
whilst ensuring the availability of regular export volumes, not only sporadically when the domestic market fails to absorb the crop
(like in 2015), besides reducing downtime inmanufacturing settings, especially starch industries”.
