Inor Ag. Assmann
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Internal scenario
Wheat consumption in Brazil soared from 2011 to 2014, but in 2015 it dropped. A further reduction is consumption is project-
ed for 2016, from 10.7 million tons in 2015 to 10.2 million tons in 2016. “The initial stocks, the Brazilian crop and imports supply
this demand. However, of the total volume available for supplying the domestic market, it is estimated that 45 percent of the cere-
al comes from abroad”, explains Flavio Enir Turra, Ocepar manager.
The Brazilian stocks are also supposed to shrink, from 1.2 million tons in 2015 to 770 thousand tons in 2016. This amount lags
behind the need for the consumption of one month, which is about 820 thousand tons. According to the analyst, prices were higher
than in 2015 and liquidity was in better condition than three to four years ago. But he strengthens that in 2016 some factors might
have an adverse effect on the Brazilian growers, whilst benefiting the national buyers: the big global wheat stock and the chance for
Argentina to get more aggressive in the foreign market.
“Argentina, our major source of wheat imports for supplying the domestic market, has strongly reduced its wheat exports to
Brazil in 2013”, comments Turra. “After the election of president Mauricio Macri, the negotiations are supposed to be resumed in
bigger volumes, following a reduction in export tariffs of agricultural commodities.” The global stocks had reached their highest
volumes on record and the relationship with consumption was the biggest in the past 13 crop years. “This constitutes a pressure
factor in itself on the international prices. Nevertheless, in Brazil the stocks at the end of the season should be low”, he concluded.
Unleavened
Adverse scenario creates an atmosphere of insecurity among the farmers in Brazil,
leading to reductions in planted area. Solace only comes fromhigher productivity
Despite planted area
reduction, productivity
is likely to outstrip the
2015/16 growing season
