SOYBEAN
I
t was supposed to happen in 2016, but,
due to bad weather conditions, the big-
ger than 100million soybean crop in Bra-
zil, leading global producer and exporter,
was postponed for the next season. For
the new growing season, at the turn of the
year, thereweregood indications for achiev-
ing the target. All projections were point-
ing to a crop size that exceeds the previous
year’s volume, on the grounds of slightly
bigger planted area and the recovery of the
productivity levels, owing tomore favorable
weather conditions. A crop that leads Bra-
zilian agribusiness and exports, the golden
grain generated a Gross Production Value
(GPV) of R$ 118 billion in 2016.
In December 2016, the National Food
Supply Agency (Conab) was considering the
chance for a crop of 102.4 million tons in
the new season, to be harvested as of Janu-
ary 2017. The projected volume would rep-
resent a 7.3-percent increase over the previ-
ous year’s crop, which had been jeopardized
by climate adversities brought about by the
phenomenon known as El Niño. There was
excessive rainfall in the South and drought
conditions towards theNorthandNortheast,
adverselyaffectingproductivity levels.
The new cycle could result into a bigger
volume (106 million tons, up 9.2% from the
previous crop), according to the forecast re-
leased by Safras & Mercado consultancy,
back in December 2016.Analyst Luiz Fer-
nandoRoqueobserved that the two leading
producers (the States of Mato Grosso, in the
Center-West and Paraná, in the South) were
showing good field performance, impacting
upon the productive potential of the Coun-
try. The States themselves, in turn, con-
firmed the good perspective.
The Mato Grosso State Institute of Agri-
cultural Economy (Imea), in thesamemonth,
was pointing to “good farmgate profits” and
possible record crop of 30.5 million tons in
theState,biggestproducerofthecrop,witha
small increase in planted area and the recov-
ery of the productivity levels under appro-
priate climate conditions. The Rural Econo-
myDepartment(Deral)oftheStateofParaná,
in turn, notwithstanding a slight reduction in
cultivation (1%withoption for corn) was bet-
tingonan11-percent bigger soybeancrop.
Rio Grande do Sul, in the Far South
and Goiás, in the Center-West, ranking as
third and fourth biggest producers, which
had harvested a normal crop in the previ-
ous year, could even reduce their volume
slightly, although RioGrande do Sul was al-
ready signaling a bigger crop size, and the
same holds true for the Matopiba region
states (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Ba-
hia, in the Northeast andNorth), betting on
better climate conditions in 2017.
Leading product in Brazilian agribusiness
harvested a smaller than expected crop in 2015/16
Therearegreatexpectationsinstoreforthegoldengraininthe2016/17
growingseasoninBrazil,withfirmprojectionsforupwardsof100milliontons
The
gold
rush
Sílvio Ávila
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