VETOREXTERNO
A previsão para o ciclo 2016/17 é de “um ano de safra
boa e recuperação da produção nacional, comclima neutro
ou sob efeito de
La Niña
fraca”, frisa o documento “Outlook
Fiesp 2016”. Registra que o “crescimentode área deve conti-
nuar a ocorrer, porémemescalamenor doque emanos an-
teriores,comalgumamigraçãodeáreaparamilhodeprimei-
ra safraestimuladapelospreços remuneradoresde2016”.
Para o futuro, o principal vetor da produção da soja será
omercado externo. “Mas a demanda doméstica seguirá im-
portante, em farelo para alimentação animal, diante da boa
performance da pecuária, aomesmo tempo emque o con-
sumodeóleocombustível e comestível deverá ser relevante
e inclusive fortalecido com incremento do uso de biodiesel
pela ampliação das metas estabelecidas pelo governo para
misturanodiesel (10%até2019)”, observaaentidade.
O Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento
(Mapa), de sua parte, também faz projeções de maior incre-
mento em 10 anos nas exportações da oleaginosa brasileira:
41%contra22,6%noconsumo, enquantoaproduçãoevolui-
ria35,1%(abaixodoregistradonaúltimadécada,66%).Aárea
cultivadanoPaís,nasprevisõesdoministério,crescerámenos
(30,2%, ou 2,7%ano, ante 5,8%anuais na década passada) e
amaiorexpansãodeveráocorrersobreterrasdepastagens.
HEATEDALTERCATION
With regard to 2016, Imea sources refer to “higher average nominal soy-
beanprices in thehistoryofMatoGrosso, stimulatedby scarcedomestic sup-
ply, high demand, and by the ChicagoMercantile Exchange and the appreci-
ation of the dollar in mid-year. The Center for Applied Studies on Advanced
Economics (Cepea), in São Paulo, also ascertained record prices in the Brazil-
ianmarket (the indicator inParaná in2016wasR$77.43/sc).
The top soybean producing State complements and celebrates the 8-per-
cent bigger shipments through the ports in the North, in 2016, which should
continue throughout 2017, with reflections on the global competitiveness of
the soybean produced in Mato Grosso. However, these exports, both in the
StateandintheCountry,sufferedareductionthisyear,mainlyduetothesmall-
er amount of the crop. As for the next period, with a projected increase in pro-
duction,exportsofBrazilcouldhitrecordforeignsales(closeto58milliontons).
This,fromprojectionsreleasedbyseveralorgansinlate2016,wassupposed
to occur despite the bigger global supply (in light of the already consolidated
record crop of the biggest producer, the United States, with 118.7million tons,
and good perspectives for the crop in Brazil), simply because demand contin-
ues heated. China, major buyer (this country accounts for 74% of all Brazilian
soybeanshipmentsabroad)isstilldemandingbigvolumes.Nevertheless,glob-
alstocksarerisingandcouldhaveanegativeimpactupontheprices.
ThesmalleramountsofsoybeanavailableinBrazilin2016,alongwiththe
economic crisis, have equally adversely reflected on the production and do-
mestic consumption of soy based products (meal and oil), as well as on the
profitability of the industry, which is also resenting the accumulation of tax
credits. But the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industries Association (Abiove) is har-
boringmore positive expectations for 2017, regarding bigger rawmaterial of-
fer,theadditionofmorebiodieseltofossildiesel(B8)and,eveninthemainte-
nanceof good international prices.
EXTERNALVECTOR
The forecast for the 2016/17 season “a year of a good
crop and recovery of national production, with a neutral
climate or under the effect of a weak La Niña”, says the
São Paulo State Industry Federation (Fiesp), in the docu-
ment “Outlook Fiesp 2016”. It registers that “area increases
should continue, but on a smaller scale compared to previ-
ous years, with some areamigration to summer crop corn,
stimulated by the remunerative prices in 2016”.
For the future, the main soybean production vector will
be the foreignmarket. “The importance of domestic demand
will continue, inmeal for animal feed, in light of the goodper-
formance of all livestock operations, whilst the consumption
of edible and fuel oil should continue relevant, and strength-
enedbytheever-increasinguseofbiodieselforexpandingthe
targets set by the federal government for the fossil diesel and
biodieselblends(10%upuntil2019)”,observeentityofficials.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply
(Mapa), on its part, also projected increases in 10 years of
Brazilian soybean exports: 41%against 22.6% in consump-
tion, whilst productionwas supposed to soar 35.1%(below
the levels of the past decade, 66%). The planted area in the
Country, according to theministry, will experience a small-
erincrease(30.2%,or2.7%ayear,against5.8%ayearinthe
past decade) and the biggest expansion will occur on de-
graded pasturelands.
MOVIMENTOSDASOJA
Soybeanonthemove
Produçãobrasileira
Safras
2015/16
2016/17
Área(milha)
33.251,9
33.903,4
Produtividade(kg/ha)
2.870
3.022
Produção(milt)
95.434,6
102.446,6
Fonte:Conab/Estimativa.Dezembro:2016.
Anos
2016*
2017**
Farelo(milhõest)
29,70
31,10
Óleo(milhõest)
7,80
8,10
Fonte:Abiove/Dezembro2016 *Estimativa**Projeção
Exportaçãobrasileira
Anos
2015
2016
MilKg
MilUS$
MilKg
MilUS$
Grão
54.324.238 20.983.575 51.581.875 19.331.323
Farelo
14.826.662 5.821.074 14.443.792 5.192.781
Óleo
1.553.835 1.055.342 1.149.961
801.362
Fonte:Secex.
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