SLOWING DOWN
Deceleration has marked the second half of 2016. Comparing the quarter from July to Octo-
ber to the same periodof the previous year, the reduction reaches 6.5%. Over the year, the situation
is still positive. The shipments accumulated fromJanuary to October are up 5.14% from the ship-
ments fromJanuary toOctober 2015. The trend, according toMDICofficials, is that November and
December will remain within the average of the second half of the year, with 350 to 400 thousand
tons, andan increaseof 2.5%to3%from2015. ABPAofficials refer to slightly bigger numbers, and,
with the Trump effect, they believe that part of the revenue will be recovered in dollar.
In October, sales amounted to US$ 509.9 million, down 2.2% from the same period in 2015.
Considering the total of the 10months, the revenue amounts to US$ 5.748 billion, down 3.57%. In
real, it represents R$ 20.05 billion a year, up 3.83%. In the monthly comparison, the revenue in na-
tional currencywas 20%bigger than in2015, amounting toR$1.6billion inOctober 2016. Now, the
bets of the sector rely on a dollar of over R$ 3.50 and demand for Brazilian chicken meat that is
supposed to increase about 5% in the international market in 2017. According to Ricardo Santin,
the breakeven point for the Brazilian product in the international market remains at a dollar quot-
ed fromR$ 3.40 to R$ 3.50.
Evolutionof Brazilian
exports should
reach 5% in volume,
but international
prices in 2016 were not
favorable, resulting
into a drop in revenue
Selling more,
less
earning
Brazil should end 2016 consolidating the
exports of chickenmeat from4.45 and4.5mil-
lion tons, up 5% in tons from 2015. In reve-
nue, with the depreciation of the dollar that
started in the first half of the year, the expec-
tation is for a 4-percent drop in total revenue
from the operations. The exchange rate rela-
tion only showed some reversal in November,
with the election of Donald Trump as presi-
dent of the United States, a fact that gave rise
to turbulence in the global economy and ex-
pectation for better margins.
According to numbers released by the
Ministry of Development, Industry and For-
eign Trade (MDIC), up until October 2016,
chickenmeat ranks as fifth itemon Brazil’s ex-
port agenda, with US$ 4.99 billion in revenue.
In value, this represents a decrease of 3.74%
from the same period a year before. The pro-
tein represents 3.26% of everything Brazil
ships abroad. In this ranking, it remains be-
hind soybeans, iron ore, crude oil and sugar.
Ricardo Santin, market director at the Bra-
zilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA),
has it that the global market has been buying
less compared to the past, but this should get
better in 2017. “The market is more balanced,
also because of bigger production volumes in
some importing countries. Furthermore, out-
breaks of avian flu in Europe and Asia had
some impact upon the global trade”, he ex-
plains. “We have continued expanding into
new markets, besides the traditional buyers,
and this has led to higher volumes in light of
the stable scenario in some markets”.
According to him, nowadays, Japan, Mex-
ico and China represent 60% of all Brazilian
exports. Over the past months, Japan was re-
ducing its purchases, but the expectation is for
this country to resume its imports in Novem-
ber andDecember. In spite of this, Brazil is still
the leading global exporter and the second
largest producer.
According to ABPA sources, Brazilian whole
broiler exports, industrialized and processed
cuts soared 5% in the first 10 months in 2016,
compared to the same period the year be-
fore, totaling 3.693 million tons. In October,
exports dropped 4.5% compared to the same
month in2015. Shipments amounted toalmost
310 thousand tons, the smallest volume in 20
months. The deceleration in October also re-
flects the drop of 10 thousand tons to Venezue-
la, a country in crisis, and the decision by China
to exclude five meatpacking companies in Bra-
zil, for bureaucratic reasons, nowbeing solved.
Sílvio Ávila
28
